XAUUSD by VertexCapital_SMC — TradingView

The market is currently at a very sensitive stage. On the one hand, positive signals from the White House regarding US-Iran negotiations drove capital flows to risk assets and the dollar weakened. On the other hand, Iran’s naval blockade and Israel’s firm stance continue to make the geopolitical situation highly tense.

Additionally, slowing producer price index (PPI) data and expectations of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy by the end of 2026 support the bullish trend in gold (XAU/USD).

🧠Market structure analysis (SMC perspective)

After CHoCH formed near $4,700, the entire market structure shifted into an uptrend, with significantly higher highs (HH) and lower lows (HL). Currently, Smart Money is focused on key liquidity areas.

🎯 1. Liquidity and withdrawal (scan the QR code)

There is plenty of liquidity on the buy side (BSL) above the $4.84 area, where sell-side stop-loss orders are gathering. The main question is: will the price withdraw this liquidity and then reverse, or will it continue to rise?

📦 2. Area of ​​Interest (POI-Point of Interest)

Display area (order block on H1 frame): $4,840 – $4,847
An area of ​​strong supply just below liquidity – a short-term bearish reaction is likely.
Ordering range (OB + FVG): $4,750 – $4,768
Unfilled fair value gap (FVG) with strong order blocks – an ideal area to continue the uptrend.

📊 Trading Scenario (Smart Money Method)

We don’t predict – we react to Smart Money movements:

🔻 Scenario A: Sell on pullback (higher likelihood of intraday trading)
Conditions: Price reaches $4,840 – $4,847, reversal signals (BOS/MSS) appear on small time frames (M5/M15).
Goal: $4,800 | $4,768

⚠️ This is a counter-trend trade – not a complete trend reversal.

🔺 Scenario B: Buy with the trend (main strategy)
Conditions: Wait for the price to drop to the $4,750 – $4,768 area (FVG + OB).
Confirmation: Look for bullish signals like Quasimodo or BOS on small time frames.
Target: A break above $4,847 and continued gains to higher levels.

⚠️Risk Management

Avoid buying in the $4.82 to $4.84 area out of fear of missing out (FOMO) – as you are trading directly within the supply and liquidity area.
Keep an eye on news regarding Iran’s naval blockade, as any escalation could invalidate short-term technical analysis.

💬What do you think?
Will gold break out of the top or recover first to fill the FVG gap? Share your opinions with us in the comments 👇

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