Golden Week Technical Analysis Report: The consolidation pattern continues, with strong bullish expectations above the 4750 mark

Market review: At the beginning of this week (April 21), global gold opened lower, then quickly fell back to around US$4,736. It gradually stabilized and rose during the day, hitting a maximum of US$4,828 during the US trading session, with intraday fluctuations of around US$100. This trend of first sharp decline and then steady recovery shows that the market has not formed a unilateral trend, but has entered a consolidation stage.

Basic dynamics:

The U.S. dollar index: opened higher yesterday but ended lower, closing lower and currently still under pressure below the 200-day moving average. The US dollar maintained an overall weak trend, providing support for gold.

Crude oil price trends: Oil prices are currently below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the short-term moving average, indicating a short-term trend of consolidation or downward pressure, which will limit the decline of gold prices.

Evening data worth watching:

U.S. retail sales in March (compared to previous month)

U.S. February business inventories (compared to previous month)

U.S. pending home sales index in March (compared to previous month)
Market expectations for the data generally pointed to lower prices. If the actual data is in line with expectations, gold prices may face downward pressure during the U.S. trading session; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate.

Fed personnel update: The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman. Current President Jerome Powell’s term expires on May 15. Warsh is lenient; if he is nominated, he may increase gold prices; however, if his successor is not confirmed, interest rate cuts may be delayed, which will cause short-term downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical analysis:

Daily chart: Gold prices are currently stable above the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator, maintaining a strong upward trend. The Japanese candlestick pattern indicates that the bullish momentum is continuing, but the upside potential is not yet complete. If the intermediate support continues to hold, the key resistance levels to watch are 4860 and 4950.

4-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly, with the upper band representing resistance near $4,860. This level coincides with the 10-day weekly moving average, forming strong technical resistance. The next key level to watch is the psychological $4,900 level, which was the highest point reached by last week’s rally.

Indicators: The daily chart shows that the 5-day moving average has a golden cross, but the upward momentum has slowed down slightly; the MACD indicator shows a golden cross upward trend; the KDJ indicator shows a weak cross; the RSI shows a golden cross and rises slightly. Overall, short-term technical indicators point to a possible rebound, but the presence of multiple resistance levels prevents a sustainable breakout.

Basic scope and strategy:

Gold is currently trading in the key range of $4750-4860. Neither buyers nor sellers are likely to establish a sustainable trend until it actually breaks out of this range. The overall technical structure shows a slight upward trend; therefore, the strategy of buying on dips is still the best.

Main support level: $4,750 (strong intraday support and a key level that determines whether the market will rise or fall).

Main resistance levels: $4860 (first short-term target), $4900 (second target).

Day trading advice:

Buying strategy: It is recommended to build a long position near $4,770, with a stop loss below $4,740. The target is the $4810-4820 range. If it breaks through, the position will be held until the price reaches around $4860.

Transaction reminder and unconfirmed position processing:

It is recommended that investors who are currently short at low levels or long at high levels gradually adjust their positions within the range of $4750-4860. If the price continues to trade above $4,750, short positions should be treated with caution as further rebound is possible. Long positions can be gradually reduced around $4,860, waiting for confirmation of a breakthrough before increasing positions in the direction of the market.

Volatile markets are the best test of patience and discipline. In the frequent fluctuations, many investors fell into unfavorable situations due to chasing highs and lows, resulting in the closing of short positions, freezing of long positions, and disrupting the entire trading rhythm. But always remember: the market is full of opportunities, what is missing is a clear strategy and perfect execution.

If you are having trouble managing your positions, or would like to seize trading opportunities with greater stability in volatile markets, please feel free to leave a message in the comments section to share your opinions and questions. Share this article with your friends so that more people can benefit.

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