Gold Technical Analysis: Smokescreen on the negotiating table, powder keg in the Middle East – gold price recovery is just the beginning

It’s not all calm in the market, especially with Trump returning to his usual stance. Recent gold price trends reflect the meaning of “fluctuation” – one moment we hear news of positive negotiations, and the next we hear news of additional troops. Global traders must be careful as no one dares to place large bets before official news is released.

However, as an analyst with long experience in the market, I can honestly say: the current recovery in gold prices is more like the calm before the storm than a clear announcement of a bullish counterattack.

Technical Analysis: Recovery faces difficulties; don’t confuse corrections with reversals

Let’s take a look at the daily chart. The price has failed to hold above $4,850 for several consecutive trading days, which in itself is a red flag. In technical analysis, breaking through key levels requires strength and sustainability, and the market clearly lacks both. As long as the 4850 mark is not truly broken, the mid- to long-term bullish reversal should not be prematurely concluded, and the overall trend is still bearish. Focus on the 4-hour chart, which shows a broad range of bullish moves, but it is worth noting the following details: the slope of each bounce becomes less steep and the length of the bullish candles shortens. This is not what a strong market should look like. Rather, it is a classic sign that the bullish momentum has run out. You will often hear the market say “4900,” but I believe that even if the market tests this level in the short term, it will be an opportunity to go short, not a reason to chase the rise.

Last night in the U.S. market, the short position we opened at 4730 successfully reached the 4780-4790 area, making a small profit. This is not a coincidence but a reaction to market mechanisms.

The Basics: Negotiating while increasing troop deployments—Trump’s “art of the deal.”
I advise everyone, logically speaking, not to be fooled by superficially positive news. Trump’s negotiating style has always been like this: friendly on the surface, but tightening control behind the scenes. Demonstrating good faith in negotiations while simultaneously increasing military power in the Middle East – this is not a contradiction, but a carefully designed pressure strategy. There are significant differences in the basic demands of the United States and Iran, and the ceasefire is likely to be only a temporary technical truce. If the next round of negotiations breaks down again or even escalates into a conflict, the market trend will immediately reverse. At this time, not only is the price of gold unable to rise, but it may fall sharply, and the immediate drop may reach $4,600. This is not an exaggeration.

Trading Strategy: Fall, sell frequently on rebound

Based on previous analysis, my short- to medium-term view is very clear: mainly bearish. Even if there is a short-term consolidation, it will be a downtrend for buyers, not a consolidation phase.

Actual steps:

Entry area: Continue to build short positions in batches within the $4820-4840 range.

Stop Loss: Exit with a stop loss order above $4860.

Profit reduction target: reduce positions in batches within the range of 4800-4780 US dollars.

Swing target: 4700, final target 4600.

If prices fluctuate frequently, use an arbitrage strategy and sell frequently to cover positions on rebounds. What this type of market is not afraid of is not volatility, but lack of patience. Advice for anyone currently holding a losing position:

I know many of you still hold positions that you bought at higher prices, and the recent rally may give you a glimmer of hope. But think about it calmly: If negotiations do break down, how long can you maintain your position?

My advice: Don’t wait for the final word to come out before making a negative decision. Before the formal results of the negotiations come out, adopt a pessimistic attitude and use each rebound to reduce long positions, or reverse positions and open short positions for hedging. The ceasefire is likely to be temporary and if talks break down again, it will be a moment of celebration for those betting on lower gold prices.

Opportunities always belong to those who are prepared, not to those who are blindly optimistic.

Strategic Planning | Recover from Losses Immediately in Swing Trading

If you currently hold a negative position or are confused about future market direction, please feel free to contact me. The market is full of opportunities, but it lacks careful thinking and effective business plans.

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