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The second wave of rebound encounters resistance again
Gold is in a very sensitive zone as the current recovery still looks more corrective than impulsively bullish.
This is important for Kelly as the chart has not yet resumed trending – it has simply retreated into mid-term sell-off territory, which will keep the downtrend active unless buyers are able to move further above current levels.
The political backdrop also adds another layer of uncertainty. Senate resistance to Trump’s plan to serve as Fed chair has grown, with a standoff over the Jerome Powell investigation seen as a question of the central bank’s independence rather than just a personal matter. This makes market uncertainty high this week.
Technical structure
The chart still shows that gold remains trapped within a broader correction framework, with prices currently testing the resistance band at 4812 after a sharp rebound from lower levels.
This field is important for three reasons:
Has been identified as a mid-term sales area
Price is still struggling to build acceptance above its
The underlying structure continues to exhibit weaker recovery qualities rather than clean fractures
Below current prices, the technical picture remains relatively clear:
4794 is the local fulcrum and direct reaction line
If weakness starts to spread again, 4769 is the first confirmation level
4710 is the next area of high liquidity support and the first deeper downside target
So, technically speaking, the current move looks more like a retest of supply than the start of a new bullish trend.
Eliot structure
From an Elliott perspective, the chart appears to be more consistent with a second bounce in the broader downward sequence.
This means the logic is clear:
The first bearish leg has formed
The current recovery is partially resuming the downward trend
If resistance continues to hold, the next step could be the start of a third wave of declines
This is why the current zone is so important.
Second wave developments often look convincing as prices can rebound sharply and retest the upper structure. But if this rally begins to slow below supply, it usually means the market is not reestablishing a trend – it is simply correcting before the next trend phase.
For Kelly, the current plan fits that description perfectly.
The next important thing is
The next readings come from gold at around 4812 and then around 4769.
bearish scenario
If the price remains contained below the medium-term selling zone and begins to fall below 4769, the second wave of the rebound may be nearing completion.
This would make the trend towards 4710 more normal.
If 4710 also fails to hold, the structure will set the stage for further downside.
Cancel scene
If buyers decisively call back 4812 and hold, the bearish wave count loses its quality.
This would delay a sell setup and signal that the market needs a broader re-evaluation.
However, for now, the price is still reacting below the resistance level – without completely breaking through it.
macro background
The macro picture favors a more cautious interpretation rather than an aggressive bullish one.
Kevin Warsh’s nomination remains tied to a gridlocked Senate and is weeks away from Powell’s term, adding to uncertainty about how risks to the Fed’s leadership will be resolved.
For gold, this means volatility is likely to remain high.
But for Kelly, the volatility itself is not a signal. Structure remains paramount.
Read Kelly
This is still the second wave of sales plans.
The bounce is visible, but it occurs within chart resistance areas and broader defensive structures.
This makes the bearish scenario more attractive unless buyers can regain control and stay above the current cap.
For Kelly, the cleaner approach is to let the Resistance decide.
As long as gold prices remain below 4812, the chart is still leaning lower again, with 4769 as the first catalyst and 4710 as the main liquidity reference.
in conclusion
Gold is rebounding, but the recovery still looks corrective.
The Elliott structure on the chart suggests that price may complete a second wave in a broader downward sequence, while the resistance area at 4812 remains a key area where sellers can regain control again.
As long as this area remains stable, the chart maintains an active downward path towards 4769 and then 4710.
The rebound is visible – but if this is indeed a second wave, the more significant move may still be to the downside.
