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XAUUSD — Wave 5 Sell Area Now Weekly Decision Point
Gold is heading into next week and the structure on the chart is very sensitive. The broader trend is no longer in clean expansion mode and price is now testing an area where the market must decide whether this is just a temporary bounce in weakness or the beginning of a deeper decline.
For Kelly, it’s not the kind of chart to follow emotionally. This is the type of diagram the structure should lead to.
Technical structure
Chartically, gold remains within a larger bearish channel, maintaining a defensive tone in the broader medium term.
The current pullback has pushed the price back to the wave 5 selling zone around the 4890-4920 level, which is important as it lies directly below the upper part of the broader bearish structure. So far, buyers have managed to push the price towards resistance levels but have not changed the longer time frames.
Below current prices, two technical aspects stand out:
4554 is the first strong support
4400 area as next liquidity area
Deeper still, if the broader bearish wave sequence continues to develop, the chart still holds a broader long-term target area around 3700.
wave structure
From an Elliott perspective, the current rally can be interpreted as a retracement into the wave 5 sell zone rather than a confirmed bullish reversal.
This is the basic difference.
The market actually dropped significantly before moving back to resistance. When the price rebounds into the planned selling area within the descending channel, the most obvious explanation is that the market is completing a correction phase before deciding whether to continue lower.
For Kelly, this makes the current movement highly responsive. If buyers are unable to regain and hold above the sell zone with real momentum, this zone could become the starting point for the next leg down.
Important things next week
Weekly map is relatively clean.
bearish scenario
If gold remains contained below the 4890-4920 resistance zone and begins to fall back below local support, the chart will open towards 4554 first. If this level is breached, liquidity could extend to the 4,400 area on the next trading day.
This path would keep the broader bear channel intact and support the view that the market is still trading towards larger bearish targets over time.
Ascension Cancellation Scenario
If the current selling zone is broken out and held at acceptable levels, the number of downward waves will weaken. This could force the market into a stronger recovery phase and delay the continuation of the downtrend.
But for now, the chart isn’t there yet. Price is testing resistance, not a retracement structure.
overall background
The overall angle lends itself to this more detailed, artistic image. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has recently warned against easing policy, and officials have stressed that rates may need to remain unchanged for longer while inflation risks remain. At the same time, the Fed’s broader commentary and Beige Book-style assessment underscored that conflict in the Middle East is adding to uncertainty about the U.S. economy. This combination could keep gold prices supported by fear, but it could also delay political easing that would normally bring more upside support to gold prices.
For Kelly, this creates a market where macro uncertainty supports volatility, but not necessarily sustained upside. Therefore, charts are more important here.
Read Kelly
This remains a resistance-dominated chart.
Gold has moved up into meaningful selling territory, but this is within a broader descending channel and has not fully broken out of the longer bearish time frame. This makes the uptrend vulnerable unless buyers can justify a move well above current levels.
For Kelly, the clear takeaway for next week is simple: As long as gold remains below the Wave 5 selling zone, the path of least resistance remains vulnerable to another move lower.
in conclusion
Next week, gold enters a technical decision point. The pullback has reached the 5-wave sell zone at 4890-4920, but the broader chart remains within a descending channel, with 4554 and 4400 becoming the next big bearish references if resistance holds.
A bounce is clear – but unless price moves back into a structure above resistance, the chart still looks like a setup where sellers may regain control again.
