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momentum
Wound D1:
Momentum on the daily D1 frame is currently declining. Today we saw a third bearish candle, so there is still a chance that the market will continue to fall for another 1-2 days.
Wound H4:
There are signs of a bearish reversal in momentum in the second half of the year. If this reversal is confirmed, the downtrend may continue.
Wound H1:
First half momentum is now heading towards oversold territory. Therefore, when momentum reverses upward in the first half, we may see a corrective rebound.
wave structure
Wave structure on D1
On the D1 time frame, we notice that the price has reached the first target of the Y wave. This means that the price moves according to the plan of the Y wave.
Currently, there is another target area 4274 for the Y wave. Additionally, D1 momentum has not yet entered oversold territory, so there is still a possibility that price will move towards the second target.
Wave structure on H4
The Y wave structure develops into an ABC adjustment structure, in which the target of wave C is located in the 4274 area, which is the area where wave C and wave A are equal.
H4 momentum is reversing lower, so the current bearish trend can still continue towards the 4274 target area.
Wave structure on H1
The purple 5-wave bearish structure may be the black C-wave pattern on the H4 frame.
The current sharp and strong decline indicates that the price may be inside a wave 3. The expected target of wave 3 is around 4357. However, in principle we should not predict the end of wave 3 prematurely, because wave 3 often tends to extend.
After wave 3, we expect to see a corrective rally in wave 4. Therefore, when H1 momentum reverses upward, we can expect the beginning of the 4th wave rebound.
Wave 4 typically moves sideways in a horizontal range, often retracing back to the 0.382 Fibonacci level of wave 3, around the 4427 area.
At the same time, during the decline, the price created the FVG area, with a breakout block inside it, also known as BB, located near the 4427 area.
Therefore, this price area is a potential area to look for opportunities to capture the 5-wave decline, with a target area of 4274.