XAUUSD by VanguardCore_SMC — TradingView

📉 1. Macro background: The US dollar “absorbs” gold

The deadlock in negotiations between the United States and Iran, coupled with rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, currently makes the U.S. dollar the number one safe-haven currency. Although FedWatch shows a 35% chance of a rate cut, sellers are still in control of the market unless Jerome Powell makes a formal statement.

🔍2.Market structure

On the H4 framework, we observed a classic distribution scenario:

Liquidity Sweep: Individual sellers liquidated at around $4,860 before the reversal occurred.
CHoCH & BOS: Price continued to break above the previous lows and closed below $4,660, confirming strong downward momentum.
Current situation: This is more than just a correction—price is free-falling in search of deeper areas of demand.

📦 3. Key monitoring area (POI)

🔴Sales area (high priority)

Price range: $4,680 – $4,700
Reason: Display/mitigation area is compatible with previous BOS levels. If the price returns to this area and the CHoCH signal appears on the small time frames (M5/M15), this is a strong selling opportunity.

🟢 Buy Zone (Scalp/Trend Reversal)

Price range: $4,550 – $4,600 (OTE area 0.62 – 0.79 Fib)
Reason: Discount territory from the last bull market and a possible technical pullback.

⚠️WARNING: Do not attempt to “catch a dropped knife” without obvious signs of accumulation.

🎯 4. Trading plan

Main scenarios (high probability):

Wait for the price to rebound to $4.68
Look for rejection signals on small time frames
Target: TP1: $4,600 | TP2: $4,550

Alternatives (liquidity scramble):

If the price breaks through the $4,550 level and then rebounds strongly (in the spring), you could consider a quick buy trade towards $4,700.

💡“Don’t try to be smarter than the market.”
Many traders lose money because they try to bottom at OTE levels and ignore the power of downside momentum. Trend is your friend—and now it’s red.

👉What do you think? Will gold drop to $4,500 or rebound from here? Share your opinions with us in the comments!

⚠️Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Manage your risk carefully (1-2% per trade).

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