XAUUSD by VanguardCore_SMC — TradingView

Hello traders,

Gold is currently at a critical turning point. After failing to sustain momentum above 4.86x, clear signs of weakness in the bullish structure are starting to emerge. The most important question: Is this just a correction or the beginning of a new bearish phase?

Let’s analyze the situation.

1. Market Structure – Bear Market Transition Confirmation🐻

In the H4 and D1 timeframes, things clearly changed:

CHoCH (Change in Behavior): After the distribution phase near the 4.86x area, there was a clear shift in price – the first warning sign for buyers.
BOS (Breakout Structure): The formation of lower highs and lows confirms seller control.
Volume Profile: High Volume Node (HVN) is between 4.78x – 4.80x. Price trading below the value area indicates acceptance of lower prices – a clear sign that a downtrend is dominant.

2. Key Area – Fair Value Gap (FVG) 🎯

Focus area 4.65x – 4.68x:

Imbalance: This area represents an unfilled price gap.
Convergence: It matches the previous structure (transition from support to resistance).
Scenario: A corrective bounce towards this area is expected, followed by a withdrawal of liquidity and then continued decline.

This area is often where smart money relocates.

3. Basic factors – federalism and geopolitics 🏛️

Technical analysis says sell, but fundamentals will be the driver:

Federal Reserve (FOMC) and Powell: Hawkish tone on inflation could strengthen the dollar and increase pressure on gold.
Geopolitical Tensions: The situation in the Strait of Hormuz supports oil prices. While inflation typically supports gold, the strength of the U.S. dollar is currently the dominant factor.

4. Trading Plan – High Return/Risk Trading📝

We don’t predict, we react:

Sales area: 4.65x – 4.68x
(Waiting for confirmation of small frame – CHoCH on M5-M15)
Stop loss: 4,70x
First goal: 4.51x
Second goal: 4.46x
Reward-risk ratio: about 1:3.5+

⚠️Important Tips
Avoid FOMO: If the price falls below this area, be disciplined and don’t chase the market.
Liquidity Withdrawal: Expect “stop-hunting” actions before and during the Fed’s announcement.

in conclusion:
Are we facing a classic pre-Fed liquidity trap, or is it the beginning of a new wave of decline towards 4.46x?

What’s your opinion?

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#gold #XAUUSD #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #FOMC #PriceAction