XAUUSD by LA_Trader_Fx — TradingView

Weekly XAUUSD Gold Forecast: Gold remains above key demand as markets balance recovery and stress

Gold begins the new week in a transitional phase on the daily chart, holding above key demand areas while remaining below the strong supply structure that formed during the last collapse.

The overall economic backdrop weakened safe-haven demand. The easing of tensions in the Middle East, coupled with signs that tensions between the United States and Iran may escalate, have reduced the sense of immediate risk. These changes also reflect lower defensive flows in precious metals, as both gold and silver saw defensive flows decline.

But as always, charts drive the decision-making process.

Technical structure

From a longer time frame perspective, gold remains within a correction structure after failing to continue above the 5,100-5,160 supply area.

Rejection in this area triggered a strong bearish move that eventually found support near the 4,370-4,400 demand area. Prices have since stabilized and formed a short-term bottom, suggesting sellers have lost some momentum at lower levels.

However, the market has not yet shifted into a bullish structure.

Prices are currently below the 4,800 seller supply/liquidity area, which continues to limit any recovery attempts. This area is crucial. As long as gold remains below it, the overall structure will remain corrective rather than upward.

At the same time, the 4,370-4,400 area remains the basis for the current market. This is a key level that buyers must defend to prevent further declines.

Then the structure is very clear:

Price remains above major support levels near 4,370–4,400
Recovery attempts are limited to less than 4,800
Higher time frames remain corrective
Breakthrough requires clear direction

Key technical level

Key resistance: 4,780–4,800
This is the main display area. A recovery is needed here to confirm a stronger recovery phase.

Upper resistance: 5,100–5,160
This is an area of ​​supply on the higher time frames and an area of ​​liquidity on the longer term.

Major support levels: 4,370–4,400
This is the strongest demand rule on the chart. Determine whether the current structure can be continued or decomposed.

market scene

Scenario 1 – Maintain support and regain 4,800

If buyers hold on to the 4,370-4,400 area and push prices above 4,800, the market could enter a broader recovery phase. In this case, gold may move towards the 5100 resistance area.

Scenario 2 – Consolidation continues despite resistance

Gold may remain trapped between support at 4,400 and resistance at 4,800, forming a broader consolidation structure while the market awaits stronger catalysts.

Scenario 3 – Below 4,370

If support fails, the structure will weaken significantly and open the door for further bearish continuation below the current range.

Market vision

In my opinion, gold is currently in decision-making territory on longer time frames.

The market is no longer in a major correction, but has not yet regained enough structure to confirm a bullish reversal. The balance between support at 4,400 and resistance at 4,800 will determine the trend next week.

For now, the message is simple:

Maintaining support, gold prices can continue to strengthen
Resistance is restored and recovery becomes reliable
Lost bottom, downward pressure returns

This is a market that requires patience. Direction comes from structure, not assumptions.