XAUUSD Author: Kelly_Koou_Gold — TradingView

After the recent sell-off, gold is making a modest recovery in the low liquidity zone around 4,360-4,390. In Kelly’s view, this recovery is technically significant, but it is too early to confirm a full bullish reversal.

⟡ Market structure

The broader structure remains defensive as the price remains below the larger downtrend line and has yet to regain the previous resistance area of ​​4,560-4,575 points.

However, the recent reaction in the lower areas suggests that sellers may be losing steam in the short term. Gold is trying to establish a recovery base and if buyers can stay above recent lower levels, the market may try to regain corrective momentum towards higher resistance.

➤ Critical level

◌ 4,331–4,346: Seller liquidity area and lower support
◌ 4,390–4,400: Current reaction zone
◌ 4,440–4,460: The first target of the recovery
◌ 4,520–4,560: Strong resistance area
◌ 4,575: Key level that should be pulled back for stronger gains

⌁ Elliott Wave’s Perspective

From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold may have completed a short-term bearish wave series near recent lower levels. The current rally could be the beginning of a corrective recovery phase following the decline.

Still, confirmation is needed. A stronger recovery will require prices to remain above the low-liquidity zone and begin to form higher lows.

▸ The next important thing is

If gold holds above 4,390 and continues to build momentum, the rally could first extend to 4,440-4,460. A stronger push could take the price back to 4,520-4,560.

If the price fails to sustain the current reaction zone and falls below 4,360, the bearish structure may once again open towards the sell-side liquidity zone around 4,331-4,346.

⌁ Kelly’s POV

For Kelly, this is an attempt at recovery from low-liquidity territory, with a bullish reversal yet to be confirmed. The bounce looks significant, but the market still needs to regain resistance before the structure can shift into a cleaner shape.

Gold edged higher.
But structurally, recovery needs to be confirmed above resistance.