XAUUSD Author: Kelly_Koou_Gold — TradingView

XAUUSD: Bearish structure continues, gold falls below seven-week low

Looking at the chart, gold prices are in a clear bearish structure after breaking below the major uptrend line and continuing to form lower and lower highs. The 4,450-4,470 area is a key area to watch now as it represents both the current short-term lows and the most recent confirmation of whether sellers are still in control.

Trend line analysis

Gold prices were previously supported by a major uptrend line that cut through a series of higher lows from a bottom near 4,100. However, the price has now broken above this line and refused to recover. Once this support is lost, the market falls into a weaker structure.

Above current prices, a descending trendline in the 4,890 area remains limiting recovery attempts. Every bounce toward dynamic resistance is met with fresh selling pressure.

The important takeaway is that gold is now trading below a major trendline structure. This indicates that the market is no longer in a bullish accumulation phase and has moved into a bearish continuation environment.

Elliot wave structure

From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed several sub-corrective waves within the larger downtrend. Recent price action suggests that the market may now be entering the final part of a short-term downward sequence.

Highlighted points appear on the chart:

The previous rally failed to break below the 4,700-4,760 resistance level
Then the price quickly fell towards the 4500 area
The recent weak rally has been quickly sold off
The current structure is still conducive to further downward expansion

If the Elliott Wave count is correct, gold may now be entering its next bearish expansion phase after completing its final corrective wave. The expected path on the chart points first to 4,420 points, and then potentially deeper to 4,350 points.

Key levels marked on the chart

The 4,450-4,470 area is the immediate decision-making area. If the price falls significantly below this area, selling pressure may intensify further.

4,420 is the first downside target marked on the chart. This is an area where gold prices may see a short-term reaction following a breakout.

If the bearish momentum continues, 4,350 is a deeper target. It also serves as the next major technical support within the current bearish structure.

Above the price currently, the 4,580-4,600 area is the closest recovery resistance. If gold rebounds but fails to reclaim this area, the move will still be considered a corrective bounce.

The 4,700-4,760 point area remains the strongest resistance area where the price failed before starting its final bearish phase.

A broader technical perspective

The macro environment also supports downward pressure. A stronger U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields and expectations of tighter policy from the Federal Reserve are weighing on gold, which doesn’t offer a yield.

Technically, weakness in the daily RSI and the risk of a sustained break below 4,450 make the bearish structure even more important.

meet kelly

For Kelly, this chart is still a bearish continuation rather than a confirmed bullish reversal setup.

If gold prices remain below the 4,500 level and move significantly below 4,450, the bearish outlook towards 4,420 and 4,350 will become stronger.

On the other hand, if the price recovers sharply and returns to 4,580-4,600, short-term selling pressure may ease. However, the broader structure still needs further confirmation before moving into neutral or bullish.

in conclusion

Gold prices are hovering near seven-week lows and the current structure remains weak. The uptrend line has been broken, the selloff continues on the pullback, and the Elliott Wave structure suggests the market may continue to fall.

The key level to watch is 4,450. If this area fails, gold prices may continue towards 4,420 and 4,350.