XAUUSD Author: Kelly_Koou_Gold — TradingView

XAUUSD: Recovery faces huge headwinds

Gold prices are attempting to rebound from their lowest levels since March 30, but the recovery still looks fragile as prices continue to trade below the 4,550 area during early European trading. Kelly believes the current rally remains corrective rather than a definitive bullish turn, especially as macro pressures continue to support the dollar.

Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, stronger crude oil prices and expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve are helping to keep demand for the dollar strong. This combination continues to limit gold’s upward momentum.

Technical structure

Looking at the chart, gold prices are reacting after a sharp decline and are currently trying to stabilize above recent lower levels. However, the market remains capped by multiple layers of resistance, with prices remaining below the major resistance area of ​​4600-4605.

The current rally seems more like a liquidity-driven recovery than a true structural shift. Price is also reacting below the visible FVG area, while the broader structure still shows lower highs and incomplete bearish pressure.

The current collection is important for three reasons:

Price remains below the 4600 resistance area and FVG area
Strong, impulsive decline followed by rebound
Despite short-term recovery attempts, broader structures still point to incomplete downward pressure

Critical levels to monitor:

4550–4560: Current recovery zone and buying liquidity zone
4600-4605: Major resistance and imbalance areas
4500-4510: Strong Support and Deeper Liquidity Area
See Elliott Waves

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the recent rally still looks corrective after the previous impulsive bearishness. This structure suggests that the market may be attempting a temporary recovery phase rather than starting a new bull cycle.

This is important because corrective rallies often struggle below the imbalance zone and previous breakdown zone before the general trend resumes.

So far, gold has not regained any significant resistance structure. Instead, prices are simply reacting to oversold conditions while remaining constrained by supply.

For Kelly, the focus is not on the rally itself, but on whether buyers can truly rebuild the structure above resistance. For now, these confirmations are still missing.

Fibonacci Structures and Liquidity

Fibonacci projections on the chart also support a conservative view of the recovery. Price is currently reacting around the 1,618 extension area, which is typically an area of ​​exhaustion for short-term bearish momentum.

Meanwhile, if sellers regain control again, the nearby 4500-4510 liquidity area will continue to act as deeper bearish support.

Above current prices, the 4600 FVG resistance area remains important as it represents imbalances and previous breakdown structures. If gold cannot fully regain this area, the rebound may remain limited.

The next important thing is

If gold prices continue to hold above the 4550 liquidity area, the rebound in the next few trading days may extend towards the 4600-4605 resistance area.

However, if the price fails to break below the FVG area and begins to move lower again, the market may retest the 4500-4510 support area, where deeper liquidity remains.

On the other hand, a clear breakout and acceptance above 4605 could weaken the current bearish structure and improve short-term recovery prospects.

However, the price remains below important resistance levels and has not recovered.

meet kelly

For Kelly, this rally still appears to be a correction within a broader bearish structure. The bounce off the lows makes technical sense, but it occurs against strong resistance while macro conditions continue to favor the dollar.

As long as gold prices remain below the 4600-4605 resistance zone, the preferred outlook remains conservative and the market remains vulnerable to fresh downward pressure following the current recovery attempt.

in conclusion

Gold is trying to rebound off recent lows, but the structure still looks corrective rather than firmly bullish. The 4550-4560 area serves as short-term support, while the 4600-4605 area remains a key resistance area for buyers to take back.

Unless gold prices can break out and hold above the current imbalance area, the broader structure still suggests that downward pressure may not be fully complete yet.

The rebound is visible.
But from a structural point of view, gold still faces greater resistance.