momentum

Wound D1:
Currently, the momentum on D1 is turning bearish. If the bearish momentum continues as it is now, we may see a reversal in the D1 frame and possibly start a downward trend that will last at least about 3 to 5 days.

Wound H4:
H4 momentum is currently on the downside, so a bearish or sideways move may continue for 1 to 2 H4 candles.

Wound H1:
H1 momentum is currently rising, so on the H1 frame, the uptrend will likely continue for about 3 to 5 H1 candles until H1 momentum enters the overbought zone.

Elliot wave structure
Wave structure on D1

A shift in D1 momentum to the downside indicates that the daily top may be complete or close to being completed. In this case, price is likely to continue falling toward the target of the red Y wave below, at least during a downward move of D1 momentum that lasts about 3 to 5 days.

Wave structure on H4

Currently, H4 momentum is waning. I would like to see price settle below the 4490 level to confirm the downtrend when the H4 momentum enters oversold territory.

Wave structure on H1

H4 and H1 move in opposite directions, indicating that price on the H1 frame is likely to move sideways. If so, a breakout of the 4490 level would require very significant downside force.

Therefore, the structural hypothesis of black downgoing waves 1 and 2 needs to be confirmed by the next upgoing wave in H4 momentum. This structure will be confirmed when H4 momentum rises into overbought territory, but price does not break out of the blue wave 5 top.

On the other hand, we can notice that there are many equal peaks at the top. This area contains a large number of seller stop orders, while there is also an FVG area that has not yet been filled.

Therefore, based on the 5-wave downtrend structure (waves 1 and 2 in black), a sell point around the 4563 area requires confirmation of H4 and H1 momentum, assuming both are in overbought territory when price approaches this area.

If the price can reach the 4590 area, it is still a good price area for shorting.

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