Bitcoin (BTCUSD)’s two-month support level has turned into resistance.

Bitcoin has followed a very consistent pattern during the current bear market cycle, which is very symmetrical and its phases can be easily distinguished. It has now moved back to the 50-day EMA (blue trend line) as resistance, also indicating a short-term downtrend.

But this is not the most important shift that has occurred recently, which is that support levels that existed in February/March turned into resistance levels. Technically, this trendline held an ascending low until March 27, but has now transitioned into resistance following rejection on April 1 (also at the 50-day moving average).

The 100-day moving average (green trend line) remains a resistance level since October 10, 2025, and we note that Bitcoin has begun the third bearish phase of this cycle so far. Even the daily relative strength index (RSI) remains at the same position as it was in the last week of January.

Given that the first two bearish phases saw declines of roughly the same magnitude (-38.50% and -36.20%), we expect Bitcoin to follow this path, with another decline of at least 36% from the March 17 high. Therefore, we expect its target to be $50,000, which we believe will mark the beginning of a long-term bottoming process. It is important to note that this will not be the final bottom, but rather the beginning of a long-term accumulation and dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy for long-term investors until the bottom is reached after the summer. It shouldn’t be much less.

So, do you think Bitcoin will start a new decline towards $50,000?

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