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Gold remains under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain strong while rising oil prices reignite inflation concerns. Reuters reported that gold prices will fall by about 3% on a weekly basis as Brent crude oil prices rise sharply and the market grows concerned that energy-driven inflation may keep gold prices at higher levels for longer.
This macro backdrop remains important for gold. A recent Reuters poll showed that economists have pushed back expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve until late 2026 as war-related inflation risks keep inflation expectations high. This is not a good environment for gold in the short term.
Judging from the H1 hourly chart, the main structure is still bearish. Prices remain trapped below the downtrend line and the current recovery looks more like a technical bounce than a confirmed reversal. The main resistance is located near 4,712, while 4,668 is immediate support. If this support is broken, the next lower area is 4,644, followed by deeper liquidity areas around 4,597.
Day trading plan:
If the price rebounds but fails to fall below 4,712
→ Gold may return to 4,668
If 4,668 is obviously broken
→ Downtrend may extend to 4,644 and 4,597
If the price recovers to 4,712 and continues above this level
→ Recovery becomes more believable, but so far this remains a secondary scenario
M_FLOW perspective:
The chart still favors continued declines. So far, any bounce looks more like a retest of resistance than a true recovery. With the macro backdrop still favoring a stronger dollar, firmer yields, and inflationary pressures from oil, gold needs to reclaim nearby resistance before believing in a stronger rebound.
Today’s bias: Bearish below 4,712