The market is waiting…will the Dow break the 50,000 mark? FOR THINKMARKETS:US30 by ThinkMarkets — TradingView

Main and general engines:

• De-escalation talks (Iran-US): Global investors are focused on rapid political developments in negotiations to end the conflict between Iran and the United States. Any signs of success in negotiations would lead to lower geopolitical risk premiums, which would drive strong gains for stocks led by the Dow on lower energy prices and stabilizing supply chains.
• Corporate earnings results: Major industrial companies continue to report strong quarterly results, bolstering confidence in the U.S. economy’s ability to grow sustainably at current interest rates.
• Monetary policy expectations: The market is still balancing strong economic data and statements from Fed members, waiting for clear signals of interest rate cuts, which represents the “fuel” needed to break through the historical peak.

Technical vision and expected scenarios:

Judging from the daily chart, the index retested after consolidating near the 49778 level, and then rebounded above 48498, indicating that the buying momentum may return after the pullback, and perhaps this will be confirmed by standing above 49778 (i.e. the end of the pullback period).

So far, some technical indicators have confirmed this positive vision. With price and trading stabilizing above the moving averages (20-day and 50-day), this may confirm the strength of the demand side, especially after testing and rebounding above the 20-day moving average. We also see that the relative strength index (RSI) curve has remained above 50 for most of the day, which may reflect the clear control of buyers so far, and there may be a lot of room to rise before entering overbought territory.

Based on this, the expected scenarios are as follows:

1. Positive Scenario:
A successful breakout and hold above the level around 49778, likely supported by positive political or economic news, could open the door to a test of the 50554.40 level. Exceeding this level means the index enters historically unprecedented price territory.

2. Scenario:
Trading limits are between 48498 – 49778, which is what may happen if the outlook is uncertain, which may cause the market to remain cautious.

3. Negative Scenario:
Stable below 49778, fell, broke, and stabilized below 48498. In this case, we may see a return of selling control, which may push the index lower towards 47356.
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