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TASI: Is a new recession taking shape?


TASI: Is a new recession taking shape?



On the surface, this week looks promising.

Simple gains. Stable shutdown.

But deep down, the story may be changing.

The Tadawul weekly stock index closed at 11,187 points, up just 0.7%. Not a big move, just enough to be optimistic.

This is where the anxiety begins.

What does this diagram show?

From a broader perspective, the index remains in a bearish structure, which means the move higher may not be as easy as it looks.

A pattern worth following

On the daily time frame, a head and shoulders pattern is starting to form.

👉 This is a pattern that often occurs before a decline occurs

The most important layer here is the neckline.

If the market breaks above this level and falls below it, it could open the way for further declines.

Why upside seems limited right now

Even if the market attempts to rebound, there is a strong barrier near the 11,700-11,800 level.

This means:
● Short-term gains may face difficulties
● Sellers can enter quickly
● Momentum may weaken faster than expected

What should traders do?

This is not a good area to buy

Because risks are quietly rising

The smartest thing to do right now:
● Avoid chasing upside potential
● Be cautious when opening new buy positions
● Let the market confirm the trend before making a decision



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