2. Classic analysis

Broad trend: Long-term bearish, starting from the 2022 peak (above the 22 riyal level). However, the price is currently showing signs of a change of direction, consolidating at the 5.00 – 6.00 riyals level.

Support and resistance levels:

Main support levels: 4.80 – 5.10 rials (historical bottom).

Nearby resistance: 6.15 riyals (currently trying to break this resistance).

Medium resistance: 8.00 riyals.

Price Pattern: A double bottom pattern is currently forming at the 5 riyal level with a clear positive bias.

3. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis

Change of Character (CHOCH): The price is now in the stage of trying to change the character (CHOCH) on the weekly frame by breaking out of the last sub-top at 6.15 riyals.

Order Block (OB): A strong order block (bullish OB) formed at the 5.20 riyal level, pushing the price up to current levels.

Liquidity: Early sell-side liquidity has retreated below the 5.00 SAR level, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reversal.

Fair Value Gap (FVG): There is an uncovered price gap (bearish FVG) of 8.50 riyals, which represents a magnetic price target going forward.

4. Wyckoff analysis

Current Phase: Price at the end of the accumulation phase (accumulation – C/D phase).

Spring: A long lower tail appears at the 4.90 SAR level as a “spring” process absorbs the last of the buying before moving higher.

Price and Volume: We noticed an increase in volume at the recent lows, suggesting that “smart money” is entering an accumulation phase.

5. Technical indicators

RSI (62.02): Bullish and moving towards strong territory, with clear positive divergence (price reaches the same low while the indicator reaches an ascending low).

Moving Averages: Price has started moving above the fast moving average and is close to breaking out of the big red average, which is a strong indicator of the start of a new uptrend.

Volume overview: Liquidity (POC) is highly concentrated in the 5.99 riyal area.

6. Transaction management and technical recommendations

Ideal entry point: Enter after the breakout and hold above 6.15 SAR, or buy on dips near 5.60 SAR.

Stop Loss (SL): The weekly closing price breaks through the 4.80 riyal level.

Target:

First target (TP1): 8.00 SAR.

Second target (TP2): 10.50 riyals.

7. Scene

Base case: Breakthrough of the 6.15 riyal level and the start of an upward journey aimed at filling the price gap above, with the first step reaching the 8 riyal level.

Another scenario: the breakout fails and returns to a longer sideways trade between 5.10 and 6.00 riyals before the price explodes.

8. Final evaluation

Expected success rate: 75% (due to RSI differences and convergence of the Wyckoff clustering model).

Type of trade: Medium to long-term swings, since we are analyzing a weekly frame.

Analyst Recommendation: The stock is in historical bottom territory and the risk/reward ratio is excellent.

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