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Interest rate cut expectations rise, gold awaits breakthrough
Gold prices started the new week with a constructive recovery structure, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates as early as June. This shift in currency orientation continues to weaken the broader dollar narrative and provides a supportive backdrop for gold.
Market background
The probability of interest rate cuts is gradually increasing, indicating that monetary policy may be loosened. This environment is generally favorable for gold, as low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Therefore, despite the recent correction, gold remains well supported on dips.
Technical overview
On higher time frames, gold is still trading below descending trendline resistance, but the recent rebound from strong support areas is a clear indication of a return of buying interest.
Price is currently approaching the 4830-4850 area, which is the short-term pivot point. A sustained breakout of this area could open the way to the following resistance areas:
5010 – Sell Resistance Zone
5213 – Major Resistance/Liquidity Area
Meanwhile, the 4672 buy area remains key support. This level defines the current bullish structure – as long as the price continues to rise above this level, the recovery scenario remains valid.
Key levels this week
Resistor: 5010→5213
Current area: ~4830
Support: 4672
Scenario of the week
The preferred scenario is bullish continuation after the correction.
Early in the week, gold prices may retest lower areas around 4700-4672 to build liquidity. If buyers hold this area, the price may resume the upward trend with a target of 5010 and a possible extension to 5213 in the coming sessions.
Confirmation of a break above the downtrend line would be a strong signal that the market is regaining upward momentum.
However, if gold prices fall below 4672, the structure will weaken and delay the bullish outlook.
in conclusion
Gold is moving from correction to sustainment potential, supported by improving technical structures and macro conditions. The main focus this week will be whether price can hold support and break through dynamic resistance – paving the way for a stronger move to the upside.