OANDA Market Overview for May 15: GBPCAD by Market_Vision1 — TradingView

The only news yesterday that could be considered somewhat important was UK GDP data, which surprisingly came in better than expected. The expected annual growth rate was 0.8%, but the actual result was 1.1%. This is a significant increase compared to expectations. At the same time, the chief economist of the Bank of England also issued a statement yesterday, directly stating that the time has come to raise interest rates. In particular, the economy is relatively stable and can withstand the impact of tightening monetary policy. Therefore, I think the pound is likely to continue to move higher for some time to come. Yes, there was a small drop and a small amount of weakness yesterday, but current levels look good to enter and build GBP positions.

As for the Trump-Xi meeting, frankly, there was nothing clear or interesting to come out of it. Just diplomatic politeness and talk about them being “forever friends”, the relationship is stronger than ever, China’s position on Iran is closer to the US’s because they also want to open sea lanes. In short, nothing is real or tangible yet.

Of course, Trump announced that they had a “historic, wonderful trade deal,” but the only thing the public knew from that deal was his statement that China wanted to buy 200 Boeing planes. If you make a rough calculation, the price of an aircraft is between 100 and 150 million US dollars. This means that the entire result of this “huge agreement” is only an aircraft purchase transaction worth approximately US$20 billion.

For the size of the Chinese and American economies, this number is very small. To be clear, this is like the UAE and Kuwait announcing a huge, historic deal and then finding out the whole thing was just the purchase of a ship. Roughly the same compared to the size of the two economies.

So there are no real details so far and the market has barely reacted other than moving sideways. More important information may come to light later. Everyone is waiting for news on tariffs or actual trade deals and actual economic cooperation, not just aircraft purchases. We’ll see what happens. If important details do emerge, markets could move wildly because we’re talking about the world’s two largest economies and any real agreement between them could significantly impact global markets.

As for today’s economic calendar, it’s almost empty. So trading is expected to be relatively calm today, and I don’t see any big moves in currencies or major assets.

But as you know, there is always the possibility of sudden announcements, unexpected news, political events, disasters or anything that can change the situation quickly. Therefore, we remain vigilant in any situation. If anything important happens, I will notify you immediately.

Overall, work today was calm and normal, with no drastic fluctuations. I look forward to seeing you all at today’s meeting. We end the week quietly, trying to realize the remaining profits, and then we go to rest. Have a nice day.