📉 Basic logic of the downward trend (weak and violent fluctuations, restraining rebound, target 4450/4420 level)

🏦Fed leadership change + hawkish regime: Hopes of interest rate cuts diminish, expectations of interest rate hikes rise (the biggest negative factor in the medium term)
The new chairman Kevin Wash officially took office on May 22, 2026. His basic stance is to maintain high interest rates for a long time, accelerate the shrinkage of the balance sheet, and do not rule out raising interest rates in 2026. Warsh called for reducing the Federal Reserve’s $6.7 trillion budget while prioritizing lowering interest rates on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.

🔥 Inflation data rose sharply: U.S. CPI in April was +3.8% year-on-year, PPI was +6.0% year-on-year, and core CPI was 2.8% (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Steady inflation shocked markets, dashing any expectations of a rate cut.

📈 Market Forecast (CME FedWatch):
Probability of rate cut in 2026: 1%
Probability of interest rate hike in 2026: 58%
Probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June: 97.3%

💼 Institutional positioning:
Citibank: Lowered its short-term price target to $4,300, noting that “gold is more likely to fall than appreciate in a tight monetary regime.”

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