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Classic analysis
Overall Trend: Near-term prices are currently in a transitional phase from bearish to sideways/bullish. After a sharp decline from the 19.50 level, the price started forming successive higher lows.
Support and resistance levels:
Main support level: 16.64 riyals (last correction area).
Nearby resistance: 17.65 riyals (61.8% Fibonacci level).
Main resistance: 18.28SAR.
Price Patterns: We notice the formation of a double bottom pattern or the beginning of a small ascending channel, where price fails to break out of the last bottom and begins to rebound.
2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis
BOS/CHOCH: Price broke out of the minor bearish market structure (CHOCH) after breaking through the recent top of 17.00.
Order Zone: There is a strong bullish order zone area at the 16.80 – 16.90 rial levels, which is where the price started recently.
Liquidity: Liquidity has retreated from previous lows around 16.60, which enhances upside potential.
3. Wyckoff analysis
Current Phase: Price at the end of the accumulation phase.
Spring: The rebound from 16.64 represents a potential “spring” as the previous lows have been tested and the price has bounced back on good volume.
Price vs. Volume: We notice that volume is stable and trying to rise, which indicates that sell quotes are being absorbed.
4. Technical indicators
MACD: shows a positive cross above the zero line with the rising signal line, supporting the continuation of the bullish momentum.
Fibonacci: Price is currently trading below the 61.8% level (17.65), a break above this level is key to reaching higher levels.
5. Transaction management and digital recommendations
Ideal entry point: between 17.10 and 17.18 (current price is suitable).
Stop Loss (SL): Hourly closing price below 16.60 SAR.
First target (TP1): 17.65 SAR (61.8% Fibonacci level).
Second target (TP2): 18.28 SAR (100% Fibonacci level).
6. Expected scenarios
Base scenario: The gradual rise continues to test the 17.65 area, if the momentum candle breaks this area, we will go directly towards 18.28.
Another scenario: Price returns to a break above the 16.80 level, which could allow the price to test the main bottom at 16.64 again before confirming the next trend.
7. Final evaluation
Expected success rate: 70%.
Type of trade: Volatile (medium term for several days), since the analysis is carried out on the hourly frame and the targets are relatively distant levels.
Conclusion: The stock is in good technical rebound territory, supported by a rising bottom pattern and positive indicator crosses, fully in line with the 16.60 stop.