Market_Vision1 Forex Market Overview for May 3: AUDCAD — TradingView

Good morning everyone, let’s quickly review the current situation and see what is happening in the market.

Frankly, there is no substantial new information yet. Particularly regarding the Gulf issue and Trump’s announced move to transport ships through the Strait of Hormuz, specific details remain unclear.

What we are actually facing is the continuation of limited tension. A missile attack hit a UAE port and several Iranian ships were reportedly destroyed. But it is unclear whether they are unmanned ships or warships.

As for the process of “guaranteeing ship passage”, the situation is more ambiguous. The US said some ships successfully crossed the sea and a South Korean ship was hit.

But at the same time, media reports said the ship was initially in a port within the UAE and was targeted there, rather than while in transit.

In short, it is unclear how the operation was carried out or Iran’s true response.

The United States continues to target any target it sees, considered within the framework of current tensions. Iran also does not appear to be fully committed to the truce – as the attacks even affected internal areas, not just ships.

Trump has certainly said that Iran has made “the biggest mistake in its history,” but so far we have not seen an overt escalation in response to this statement.

On the other hand, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that any attempt to break the siege by force will lead to new escalations and dead ends.

An important point is this: Such rhetoric is usually intended to deter, not escalate. This is meant as a warning message, not a prelude to war.

Therefore, neither the United States nor Iran knows whether they are ready to enter a full-scale confrontation now.

The market understands this. We saw oil prices rise quickly – with Brent reaching almost 115 – but then fall back as there was no fundamental change in the situation, just isolated incidents.

Let’s look at another important news.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates again – for the third time in a row, by 25 basis points. Interest rates reached 4.35% and the Australian dollar continued to strengthen.

Australia is breaking the rules – not to demonstrate the benefits, but to preemptively advance the rules.

If global tensions persist, this move may be wise as they get inflation under control sooner rather than later. If things calm down, they can get through this phase later without too much stress.

We’ll see how things develop.

today:

It’s not data heavy, but we have preliminary indicators on the U.S. labor market. As non-farm payrolls data approaches, any employment-related numbers will be important.

This affects the U.S. dollar and most assets in the market.

Pay close attention to the data.

If there is important news outside the schedule, we will announce it as soon as possible.

For now, there’s nothing to worry about. What we are seeing is not a major upgrade but a lack of clarity in the approach to sea lane operations.

We are working fine.

We will see you in the meeting and wish you happy trading👍