Gold trading strategy for Monday:

In the past 48 hours, U.S.-Iran relations have undergone drastic changes from “openness” to “siege” to “sharp confrontation.”

Regarding the opening of trading tomorrow (Monday), I have compiled the following questions and answers based on the latest news and market dynamics for your reference.

What happened over the weekend?

-The Strait of Hormuz ‘opened and then closed’

Please check for the latest news yourself; I won’t repeat it here.

As the Strait of Hormuz “opens and closes”, Monday’s opening trend will depend on the direction of the market’s basic trading logic.

Gold prices currently fluctuate between short-term moving averages, with the key price ceiling at $4910-4920.

If gold prices stabilize at this level in the near term, the technical picture will be on the strong side. On the other hand, if the daily chart fails to hold above $4,850, the market will continue to fluctuate within a specific range.

Strong resistance is located in the $4870-4890 range. A breakout of this range would target prices between $4,910 and $5,000.

On a pullback, expect strong support near the 20-day moving average ($4,650).

Main price levels:

Support: USD 4810-4813 → USD 4795-4798 → USD 4780-4783 → USD 4768-4770 → USD 4750-4753

Resistance level: $4853-4855 → $4872-4874 → $4883-4885 → $4895-4899 → $4910-4915

Weekend News Digest:

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz (front): Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz until the United States lifts the naval blockade.

Renewed geopolitical tensions could support gold prices, given its demand as a safe-haven asset. Ceasefire agreement set to expire (vague): A two-week temporary ceasefire agreement is set to expire and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear.

U.S. officials have warned that conflict could break out again in the coming days if negotiations fail to achieve a breakthrough in the short term.

Further USD Weakness (Positive): Continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index supports gold prices in U.S. dollar terms.

Renewed expectations of interest rate cuts (good news): After oil prices fell, inflation concerns subsided, and the market began to reassess expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which will boost gold prices next week.

Warsh hearings approaching (potentially positive): Next week the Senate will hold confirmation hearings for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. The market is generally expecting Warsh to provide a supportive signal for monetary easing, which may stimulate further gains in gold prices.

Monday trading strategy:

Normal opening or slight gap down (range: 4830-4840)

This is the most likely scenario.

The price of gold is expected to fluctuate slightly around the 4830-4840 level. The current buying and selling power is relatively balanced, and the market is waiting for further clarity. It is recommended to monitor carefully and make decisions patiently, waiting for directional signals.

Support levels worthy of attention: 4810-4813. If the price reaches this level and stabilizes above it, it is recommended to open a small buying position with target prices of 4850, 4870, 4900 and above.

Resistance levels worth paying attention to: 4853-4855. If the rebound encounters resistance, it is recommended to sell slightly with a target price between 4830-4820.

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