Gold prices remain firm and trending higher. PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD by IS_GoldenTeam — TradingView

Gold prices remain firm and trending higher.

In the past 24 hours, the price of gold fell first and then rose, fluctuating sharply.

The current gold price is showing a typical “low opening and high closing” pattern, and this pattern is mainly affected by the sudden deterioration of the situation in the Middle East over the weekend. This pattern is known as a “quick rebound after a sharp decline,” and is similar to the rebound pattern after last Monday’s lower open, with the market viewing the $4,740 level as key short-term support.

What’s the most noteworthy development in the latest news?

The main series of events are summarized as follows:

The first incident: Iran refused to participate in the second round of talks

Iran clearly refused to participate in the second round of US-Iran talks, effectively ending the Islamabad talks. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, and the US military opened fire on and seized Iranian merchant ships in the Gulf of Oman.

Event 2: The ceasefire agreement is about to expire

The two-week temporary ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran is expected to expire on April 22 (next Wednesday), and there is currently the greatest uncertainty. If the two sides do not renew the agreement, the conflict may resume; but if an extension is reached, the geopolitical risk premium will continue to decline. The second round of ceasefire negotiations is currently scheduled to be held on April 22-23, and its progress will become the focus of market attention this week.

Event 3: High oil prices exacerbate inflation concerns

The above-mentioned geopolitical events have intensified global energy risks, led to a sharp rise in global oil prices, and heightened market concerns about inflation. Rising inflation expectations also suppressed market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, causing the U.S. dollar index to rise to its highest level in a week, which put considerable pressure on gold prices.

Event 4: Federal Reserve officials send a signal of loose monetary policy (latest developments)

Fed official Goolsby said he still believes interest rates will remain low over the next 12 to 18 months, with short-term inflation expectations rising and long-term expectations remaining stable.

In addition, Trump’s “the sooner the better” remarks triggered concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, causing the U.S. dollar index to fall more than 1% that day, hitting a three-year low, and pushing up the prices of non-U.S. assets such as gold and cryptocurrencies.

What changes have occurred in market trading logic?

Currently, the market is in a struggle between “geopolitical manipulation” and “expectations of interest rate cuts.”

The extension of the ceasefire agreement reached on April 22 will be a key factor in determining short-term price trends.

If the agreement is extended, geopolitical risk premiums will fall further and gold prices may continue to rise.

If negotiations break down and conflict breaks out again, demand for safe-haven assets will return to dominate markets.

Support level:

First support is seen at $4,772 (post pullback intraday low),

Second support is seen at $4,734 (early low/bullish support),

The third level of support is $4,693 (near April’s opening price).

Resistance levels:

The first level of resistance is $4830 (gap close),

The second resistance level is $4850-4865 (previous high trading volume area),

Strong resistance is at $4880-4910.

Trading strategy? Strategy 1: Buy on dips (conservative strategy)

Entry point: Buy small positions when price pulls back to the $4772-4780 area (near Monday’s lows) and shows signs of stabilizing.

Target price: first target price $4830-4850, second target price $4880

Stop loss price: below $4,750

Strategy: Sell at Key Resistance Levels

Entry point: When the price rises to the $4850-4865 area and shows signs of stagnation (for example: upper shadow line, low trading volume), sell with a small position.

Target price: $4800-4814

Stop loss price: above $4880

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💬 Share your thoughts with us in the comments:

Do you think the ceasefire will be extended on Wednesday? Will gold break through $4,900 or fall to $4,700?

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