Gold prices fell on Friday as jobs data turned negative

Gold prices fell on Friday as non-farm payrolls data became the deciding factor.

Global gold prices fell slightly on Friday (January 9), mainly affected by the annual adjustment of the commodity index portfolio and the continued strength of the US dollar. Investors are adjusting their positions in anticipation of the release of important U.S. non-farm payrolls data, causing the market to be cautious. As of press time, spot gold prices have fallen 0.2% to US$4,469.03 per ounce, but are still expected to achieve a cumulative increase of more than 3% this week and maintain a strong consolidation pattern.

Although the price of gold has fallen slightly from its historical high of $4,549.71 on December 26, the upward momentum is still obvious. The U.S. dollar index extended its recent upward trend and hit its highest level in nearly a month, putting tremendous pressure on gold prices in U.S. dollars. However, before the non-agricultural data is released, the potential for the dollar to rise is limited, and market transactions generally tend to wait patiently.

📉 Market fundamentals: mixed signals, waiting for guidance from non-farm employment data

From a macroeconomic perspective, the gold market is currently in a battle between easing expectations and a strong US dollar. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle this year, enhancing gold’s appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset and easing downward pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.

However, a number of strong economic data released by the United States in the second half of this week further suppressed market expectations for an interest rate cut in January, causing gold prices to fall slightly. Therefore, tonight’s non-farm payrolls report will be a leading indicator of short-term price action🔥:

Strong data → Interest rate cut expectations may be postponed again → Gold prices may face significant downward pressure.

Weak data→expected interest rate cuts→gold prices are expected to regain upward momentum.

In addition to the non-farm payrolls report, the U.S. Supreme Court is likely to rule on Trump’s tariff case today; any unexpected ruling could cause market volatility. In addition, geopolitical risks (the situation in Venezuela, diplomatic tensions in Asia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, etc.) continue to provide potential support for gold prices and limit short-selling opportunities.

📊 Technical analysis: Emergence of head and shoulders pattern; focus on key support levels

Judging from the daily chart, gold prices previously tried to break through the US$4,500 mark, but gradually fell back to around US$4,400 as the US dollar rebounded. The short-term moving average is still in a slight upward trend, providing key support, but MACD faces the risk of downward correction; the trend needs to be confirmed based on tonight’s data.

The 4-hour chart shows that after the gold price continued to fall in mid-week, it initially formed a “head and shoulders” pattern, and the highs gradually moved lower, indicating that the near-term outlook is not optimistic. The MACD indicator has formed a bearish crossover and is expected to move towards the zero line. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt the strategy of selling high before the data is released.

🎯 Main levels:

Resistance: 4480-4485; pay more attention to the 4490-4500 area.

Support: 4415-4420; key levels are in the 4400-4380 range.

💡Trading strategy: Enter with caution and strictly control risks.

Gold prices fell first and then rose in early trading, and are currently stable around 4,470. I personally recommend selling slightly in the 4480-4485 range, with a stop loss of around $8 and a target of 4430-4450. If the price breaks below this level, keep an eye on support at 4410. If there is a significant market reversal following the release of economic data, we will immediately adjust our strategy.

Short-term day trading strategy:

Short position: Sell in batches at 4480-4485 (the upper limit of the position size is 20%), the stop loss is set at $8, and the target is 4450-4430. If it falls below, the target will be added to 4410.

Long position: Buy in batches at 4415-4420 (the upper limit of the position size is 20%), set the stop loss order at $8, and target 4450-4470.

Important reminder: Non-farm payrolls data tend to cause wild swings. Therefore, small position traders are advised to set stop loss orders carefully to avoid losses! For specific entry and exit points, follow our instant alerts or join our discussion group for synchronized day trading strategies.

Overall, gold remains near all-time highs. The medium-term trend remains positive, supported by expectations for changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and geopolitical risks. However, in the short term, we should be wary of possible technical corrections after the data is released, and be prepared for both situations. We wish you good luck with your trading tonight and improve your trading timing! 🚀