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Gold rebounded strongly by about 1,000 points on the previous trading day, with a number of macro factors temporarily supporting safe-haven demand. The main factors behind the recovery were a sharp decline in the dollar, lower oil prices and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, which maintained a hawkish tone while signaling that policymakers remained open to the prospect of keeping interest rates high for an extended period, or even tightening them further if inflation risks return.
The Fed’s hawkish policies typically put downward pressure on gold. However, markets are increasingly interpreting a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy as a growing risk of an overall economic recession. Defensive funds are slowly flowing into precious metals as investors grow increasingly worried about slowing growth momentum and fragile global demand conditions.
Other geopolitical concerns about Iran also supported short-term safety positions ahead of the upcoming release of U.S. PMI data.
Technically, the current recovery still looks corrective rather than a confirmed bullish reversal. Gold remains below the broader descending trendline structure, while sellers on the longer time frames continue to aggressively defend higher liquidity areas.
In the H2 structure, price reacts from the 446x support area and attempts to stabilize above the short-term support area + Fibonacci zone. However, the 454x-456x area remains a key resistance area where demand, trendline resistance, and liquidity converge.
Unless gold prices can reclaim the higher resistance structure, the broader macro structure still favors the continuation of the downward trend.
main scene
If gold fails to break out strongly and close above the downtrend line and the psychological 4600 mark, selling pressure may return and push the price towards less liquid areas around 447x-445x. A confirmation of a break below 4,500 would reinforce the continued bearish outlook for the medium-term structure.
alternative
If gold manages to reclaim the downtrend line and close above 4600, the market could extend the recovery into higher demand areas around 465x-468x before broader distribution pressures return.
Short term positioning:
Bullish recovery within bearish structure.
Long-term positioning:
The broader macro structure remains in favor of a continuation of the downtrend until gold prices decisively move back into upper-liquidity territory.
lucas gray trading co.
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