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The upcoming trading week comes amid one of the most important macro periods of the month, with markets awaiting the release of key U.S. economic data, particularly core personal consumption expenditures and gross domestic product numbers – both of which could weigh heavily on the Fed’s interest rate expectations and broader defensive capital flows.
At the same time, this will also be the last trading week in May, and the possibility of violent fluctuations driven by institutional adjustments, month-end portfolio adjustments, and global market liquidity circulation increases.
The market’s focus is gradually shifting from pure inflation concerns to slowing economic momentum and the risk of recession brought about by long-term high interest rates. However, despite increased macro uncertainty, gold has shown relatively weak recovery behavior over the longer term.
Although short-term rallies continue to occur during periods of dollar weakness and increased safe-haven demand, prices often face strong selling pressure in the upper demand zone. This suggests that broader institutional distributional pressures remain active within the current structure.
Technically, gold continues to trade below the major downtrend line on the daily time frame and has yet to regain higher liquidity territory. The current bullish move remains more of a technical recovery than confirmation of a new long-term bull cycle.
The 458x-462x area remains a key resistance area as demand convergence, Fibonacci levels, and downtrend line liquidity continue. At the same time, if the downward pressure further expands after the economic data is released next week, the 438x-432x area will become the next key support area.
main scene
If core PCE and GDP data continue to support the outlook for the Fed to extend restrictive policy, gold may remain under selling pressure and move further down to lower support areas around 438x-432x. As long as price remains below the major downtrend line, the broader structure still favors continued decline.
alternative
If economic data is weaker than expected and recession fears intensify, and the dollar weakens significantly, gold prices may regain the 458x-462x resistance area and extend the recovery into higher liquidity areas before the market determines the next broader directional move.
Short term trends:
Try to recover within the bearish structure.
Long-term trends:
Still bearish, while gold remains below key downtrend line resistance and liquidity overhead areas.
lucas gray trading co.