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🌐Hello traders! My name is Jack Blackwell and I have 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the gold and foreign exchange markets. Below is my analysis based on the current chart structure of XAUUSD on both the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes.
✅ 4-hour frame trend analysis
Judging from the latest 4-hour candle chart, gold prices have returned to the weak correction stage after failing to maintain the previous upward breakthrough. The price has now fallen back to the 4500 area and has fallen below MA5 (4511) and MA10 (4536). At the same time, the price returned below MA20 (4534), indicating that the previous retracement structure has significantly weakened.
The current structure of the 4-hour frame reflects “the return of the downtrend after the end of the rally.” If the price fails to recover and stabilize above the 4515-4535 area, the bearish momentum may extend to 4496/4485.
✅ Hourly frame trend analysis
The hourly chart shows that gold has formed a clear downward channel in the short term. Prices break through one after another:
●MA5 (4500)
●MA10（4509）
●MA20（4521）
The moving averages have also returned to form a clear bearish arrangement.
The Bollinger Bands are trending downward, while the price continues to trade near the lower band, indicating that the market remains in a weak bearish rhythm. The current hourly chart structure is considered a “weak corrective movement in a downtrend,” meaning any potential bounce would be closer to a technical correction.
📊 Fibonacci retracement analysis
Use bottom 4453 and top 4580:
● 23.6% level: 4550
● 38.2% level: 4532
● 50% level: 4516
● 61.8% Level: 4500
🔴Resistance levels
● 4515–4532 (short-term resistance zone)
● 4552 (Main Resistance Area)
● 4580 (strong resistance level)
🟢 Support level
● 4500–4485 (current main support area)
● 4472 (next support zone)
● 4453 (strong support from previous lows)
✅ Suggested trading strategies
🔰 Sales strategy (current mainstream trend)
👉Immigration area: 4515 – 4532
🎯Target: 4500→4496→4485
📍Reason:
● Both the 1-hour and 4-hour frames are back in bearish order
● Both MACD and Bollinger Bands show continued seller control
● There is strong resistance above the 4515 mark
🔰Buy strategy (short-term rebound after saturation)
👉 Admission area: 4490 – 4480
🎯Target: 4508→4516→4530
📍Reason:
● The 4490 area is considered oversold in the short term.
● There are technical requirements for the rebound to occur
● However, the general trend is still bearish, and long transactions are only suitable for light contracts and short-term transactions.
⚠️Future trend view
👉 If the price regains stability above 4532, it may retest the 4550/4580 resistance level.
👉If the price breaks through the 4480 level, the downward momentum may expand further, targeting the 4453 area.
👉 If the price remains in the 4485-4532 range, the market may continue to suffer from weak fluctuations, and the main strategy is still “rebound selling”.
🔔 If you find this analysis useful, don’t forget to like and comment to support me, which will encourage me to share more high-quality content. I’d also love to know your thoughts on where this chart will go in the future!