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🌐 Hello traders! My name is Jack Blackwell and I have 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the futures and foreign exchange markets. Below is my current technical outlook based on the XAUUSD 4 hour and 1 hour time frame chart structure.
✅ 4-hour frame trend analysis
The latest 4-hour chart shows that after rebounding from the bottom of 4453, gold prices have risen towards the 4560-4570 area in the short term.
The moving average MA5 (4531) is slightly above the MA10 (4526), forming a short-term bullish crossover, while the Bollinger Band midline near 4523 provides short-term support.
Buyers are trying to push prices higher, but medium-term selling pressure remains and the overall structure remains bearish.
✅ One-hour frame trend analysis
The hourly chart shows that the price broke above the short-term moving averages MA5 (4530) and MA10 (4520) during the short-term rebound.
MA20 (4526) also temporarily tested around 4559, and the Bollinger Bands began to expand slightly upward.
The green bars of the MACD indicator are shrinking, indicating weak selling momentum and a short-term bullish rebound, but the price has not stabilized above the medium-term moving average.
In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate in the 4524-4570 range.
📊 Fibonacci retracement levels
● 23.6% level: around 4485
● 38.2% level: around 4505 points
● 50% level: around 4521
● 61.8% level: around 4537
● 78.6% level: around 4560 points
🔴Resistance levels
● 4545-4560 (short-term correction resistance zone)
● 4588 (previous high)
● 4630 (strong resistance)
🟢 Support level
● 4512-4525 (short-term support area)
● 4480 (main support level of 4-hour frame)
● 4439 (historical support level)
✅ Suggested trading strategies
🔰 Sell Strategy (Follow the Downtrend)
👉Immigration area: 4545–4565
🎯 Target: 4525 ← 4480 ← 4453
📍Reason: The medium-term moving average remains above the price, indicating continued selling pressure. After encountering short-term rebound resistance, prices may resume their downward trend.
🔰Buy strategy (short-term rebound)
👉Immigration area: 4512–4525
🎯 Target: 4532 ← 4546 ← 4565
📍Reason: You can still try to buy in small amounts during the short-term rebound, but the risk of medium-term decline still exists.
⚠️Future trend view
👉 If the price breaks and holds above 4546-4565: The short-term bullish momentum may continue with the target of 4582/4619
👉 If price falls below 4510: Selling forces may accelerate with downside targets at 4480/4453/4439
👉 If the price remains in the 4510-4565 range: the market may enter a weak and volatile stage, and the overall strategy is still based on selling at high levels.
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