Gold Analysis and Trading Strategies | May 19-20, OANDA: XAUUSD by GoldTrend_Master — TradingView

Hello traders! I’m Jack Blackwell and I have 15 years of experience analyzing and trading the futures and foreign exchange markets. Below is my current technical view based on the chart structure of the XAUUSD currency pair on the 4 hour and 1 hour time frames.

✅ 4-hour frame trend analysis
On the 4-hour chart, gold prices have returned to their downward trend and are strengthening again. After the price previously entered the 4550-4580 range fluctuation adjustment stage, it failed to break through the MA20 resistance level (4565) and the middle line of the Bollinger Band, and resumed its downward trend again. The price has now broken through the key support level of 4503 and bottomed near 4465, indicating that the selling momentum continues to grow.

In terms of moving averages, MA5 (4530) has resumed falling below MA10 (4541), and the bearish arrangement continues below MA20 (4565), indicating that the medium-term bearish trend still exists.

✅ Hourly frame trend analysis
The hourly chart shows that after briefly consolidating around 4524, gold price experienced a new round of strong selling and was able to clearly break through the 4503 support level.

The Bollinger Bands have also begun to widen downward again, indicating increased short-term volatility and the resumption of the downward trend.

The short-term outlook remains subdued as the negative crossover continues and the MACD remains below the zero line while the selling momentum continues to build.

The current structure of the table frame reflects “the continuation of weakness after the decline”, and there is no real sign of reversal yet.

📊 Fibonacci retracement analysis
Based on the recent downtrend from the high of 4773 to the low of 4465, the Fibonacci levels are as follows:

● 23.6% level: 4538
● 38.2% level: 4582
● 50% level: 4619
● 61.8% level: 4656

The current price has broken above the 23.6% retracement level at 4538, which confirms that the market structure remains very weak.

If the price fails to recover and hold above 4538, the downtrend may continue towards lower levels.

As for just breaking through 4582, it may indicate the beginning of a short-term upward rebound.

🔴Resistance levels
● 4520–4538 (previous swing resistance zone)
● 4538 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level)
● 4565 (4-hour frame MA20 strong resistance area)

🟢 Support level
● 4480-4465 (short-term support area)
● 4439 (second support on the 4-hour frame)
● 4400 (correct number for psychological support)

✅ Trading strategies

🔰Sales strategy (selling with the trend)
👉 Admission area: 4520 – 4535
🎯Target: 4465→4439→4400

📍Logic:
● The moving average system on the 4-hour and 1-hour frames has resumed its bearish arrangement.
● The 4538 level represents the major Fibonacci resistance area.

🔰Buying strategy (short-term rebound after oversold)
👉 Admission area: 4480 – 4465
🎯Target: 4488→4505→4524

📍Logic:
● The area around 4465 is considered a short-term oversold area.
● However, the overall trend is still bearish, and long transactions are only suitable for small-volume short-term transactions.

⚠️Future trend outlook
👉If price can recover and hold above 4538: The market may enter a short-term corrective rebound phase with a target of 4582/4619.
👉 If the price breaks through the 4465 level: the selling momentum may accelerate further with the target at 4439/4400.
👉If the price remains in the 4465-4538 range: the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the rebound selling strategy is still the main option.

🔔 If you find this analysis useful, don’t forget to like and comment to support me, it will encourage me to share more high-quality content. I’d also love to know your thoughts on where this chart will go in the future!