Falling gold prices are a buying opportunity. For OANDA: XAUUSD by Kallie_Golden — TradingView

Falling gold prices are a buying opportunity.

Next week’s CPI data and the Fed’s interest rate decision will have a dual impact: keep this strategy in mind.

If you figure this out over the weekend, you won’t be panicking on Monday.

This week, gold staged a dramatic V-shaped reversal:

Monday: Panic selling; gold hits $4,499.92, near one-month low.

Tuesday to Wednesday: Strong recovery; gold prices rose by about 3% daily, recovering lost ground.

Thursday to Friday: High fluctuations, repeatedly testing the resistance level of $4,750; gold price closed at $4,715.

Total volatility for the week is over $260.

The weekly chart closed with a bullish candle with a long lower shadow, indicating that the uptrend continues to be strong.

Only two types of traders profited this week:

The first category buys gold near $4,500, taking advantage of panic and making profits of more than $200 a week.

The second follows popular trends and does not try to predict peaks, but trades in the $4680-4750 range.

As for losers, they are also divided into two categories:

The first category sold at a loss of nearly $4,500, the lowest possible level.

The second category holds short positions between $4,600 and $4,750.

At present, the gold pricing logic has shifted from “safe haven premium” to “real interest rate”.

In March, global gold ETFs had a net outflow of approximately US$12 billion, with large outflows from North America.

Signs of easing tensions in U.S.-Iran negotiations have pulled oil prices back from highs, weakening short-term safe-haven buying.

Nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday did not fall as expected.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 in May (65,000 expected), which is a relatively strong number.

Gold prices briefly fell to $4,685 before rising again to $4,720, a decline largely due to the absence of negative factors that caused the decline.

Let me make a comprehensive analysis below:

The $4,500 level represents a strong bottom for this pullback. The long-standing rationale for global central banks to buy gold and reduce their reliance on the dollar remains valid.

As shown: The one-hour chart shows that gold is currently trading at $4,715.7, which is in the middle of a strong range.

Strong support area: $4670-4700

The first resistance level: $4750-4765, tested many times this week but failed to break through. If this level is exceeded, the target will be $4820-4850.

Medium-term target: $4800-4850. After stabilizing above $4765, the price will move towards this level.

The $4660-4680 levels are a lifeline for bullish investors.

As long as the price remains stable at this level, any pullback is considered a good buying opportunity.

If the price actually falls below $4,765, the target would be $4,800 or higher.

Key variables next week: CPI + Fed speech

Next Wednesday: U.S. CPI data for April

If inflation falls → interest rate cut expectations rise → gold prices rise;

If inflation remains high → it will put pressure on the market in the short term, but the logic of “stagflation” will push up the value of gold.

Midweek: Fed officials will give a series of speeches to try to find clues on the path to cutting interest rates.

All week: progress in US-Iran negotiations; negotiations and confrontation are normal, and there will be no change of direction in the medium term.

In short: The period before and after CPI data is released is a critical moment in determining trends.

Avoid the following completely:

❌Buy heavily over the weekend – unexpected news from the US-Iran negotiations may emerge at any time.

❌ 4715 Short – Technical indicators haven’t collapsed yet; buying against the trend is a huge mistake.

❌ Chase prices immediately after Monday’s opening – it’s wiser to wait for a pullback.

In retrospect, I only made three points this week:

“4500 Gold Trap” – That’s right!

“Non-farm payrolls being negative but not declining is a positive sign” – That’s right!

“A pullback is a good buying opportunity” – That’s right!

That’s why you keep following me.

I don’t wait until things are completely clear; I always plan ahead.

The logic is clear: news + technical analysis + position management – one is indispensable.

Stay up late with me: I analyze the market with you.