classic analysis

Overall trend: Price is moving within a clear descending channel.

Support and Resistance: We note that the upper trendline was broken and the price is now settling above the previous resistance level of 1.1711, which turned into support.

Price Pattern: Price formed a strong price base near the 1.1673 level, similar to a mini double bottom, before starting to break out of the channel.

2. SMC (Smart Money Concept) analysis

Market structure: On the breakout of the last lower top within the channel at the 1.1711 level, the nature changed (CHOCH).

Liquidity Zone: Liquidity retreated from the previous low of 1.1673 (seller liquidity) before starting the current uptick.

Price Gap (FVG): There is an incompletely filled price gap near the 1.1690 level and the price may return to test before continuing higher.

3. Wyckoff analysis

Current phase: Price appears to have gone through an accumulation phase between 1.1673 and 1.1711.

Spring: The lower area of ​​1.1673 represents a “spring” move, with buyer stops hit before a bullish breakout. We are now in the marking phase.

4. Numerical Analysis and Fibonacci Sequence

Based on the Fibonacci tool plotted on the chart:

The price is currently above the 100% level (1.1711).

The upcoming targets are precisely defined at the expansion levels: 138% (1.1725) and 161% (1.1734), reaching the main target of 261% (1.1772).

5. Transaction Management (Trading Plan)

Based on the above data, the most likely scenario is that the price will continue to rise after the violation is confirmed.

Ideal entry point: 1.1715 (or retest 1.1711).

Stop Loss (SL): hourly close below 1.1690 (below FVG zone and broken support).

First target (TP1): 1.1734 (161.8% Fibonacci level).

Second target (TP2): 1.1772 (261.8% Fibonacci level).

6. Final evaluation

Base case: As long as the price remains above the 1.1700 level, the bullish momentum will continue towards the 1.1772 level.

Another scenario: if we move back into the descending channel and close below 1.1700, the breakout will be considered a false breakout and we will return to test the bottom at 1.1673.

Deal success rate: 75% because channel penetration is consistent with the Wyckoff and Structural Change (CHOCH) model.

Trade Type: Ideal for short-term swing trades targeting higher levels within the next 48 hours.

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