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momentum
When looking at the W1 weekly frame momentum, we notice that the weekly momentum is still declining. Therefore, this bearish wave is likely to continue for about another week until W1 momentum enters oversold territory. After that, the possibility of a bullish reversal on the W1 frame in the new week is very high.
Judging from the current momentum of D1, it is already in the oversold zone. Therefore, we are likely to see a bullish reversal from the D1 framework in the next 1-2 days.
Elliott wave pattern on D1 frame
We notice that the ABC structure is complete and has reached the target of black wave (3) 0.382. Therefore, from the perspective of price targets, this wave of adjustments is considered complete.
After that, the price did not continue to rise with the trend, but continued to trade sideways in a horizontal range. Therefore, the current price is likely to be completing the time target.
At present, the red W wave three wave ABC structure has been formed. The subsequent rebound wave may be an X wave. However, since wave W is a 3-wave structure, it is very difficult to determine whether wave X has ended at this time.
The reason is that when the W wave is a three-wave structure, there may be many different wave scenarios that continue under the current situation in the market. Therefore, from a trading perspective, it is impractical to directly predict wave X at this time.
Instead, we will rely on current momentum and wave structure to determine the likelihood of a trend continuation, and then look for a suitable entry point.
D1’s current momentum remains bearish, with a bullish reversal likely within the next 1-2 days. Additionally, a black bearish ABC pattern currently appears to be forming.
The ideal targets for completing this pattern are located in the following price areas:
4388° 4230 – 4176
When the price increase is confirmed, we are likely to see an uptrend for at least 3-5 days until the D1 momentum moves towards overbought territory.
Until the D1 momentum reversal to the upside is confirmed, trading on Monday should be extremely cautious. The reason is that D1’s momentum is currently in oversold territory, which means the possibility of a bullish reversal could occur at any time.
However, if D1’s momentum continues and converges, the downtrend may continue.
trading plan
The specific trading plan is to wait for the opening of trading on Monday and observe the price reaction.
Important price areas to watch are:
4388, 4230, 4176
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