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XAUUSD/H1: After experiencing a previous sharp decline, the market is currently entering a consolidation phase within a trendline channel. Prices have continued to record higher lows in the short term, but have not yet broken through the downward trend line, indicating that buyers are trying to recover, but selling pressure remains strong, and there is also a series of negative news affecting gold prices.
– On the H4, H2 and H1 time frames, the exponential moving average 34 (EMA34) is still below the exponential moving average 89 (EMA89), so the mid-term market structure has not yet fully shifted into an uptrend, but is leaning towards a downtrend. However, the bearish momentum has slowed down significantly as the price continues to hold the support zone near (4530 – 4535).
– The (4584 – 4588) area is currently a key resistance level as it intersects the downtrend line, the 34 Exponential Moving Average (EMA34) (H2) and the previously broken resistance area.
=> This area is crucial in deciding whether the price recovers or continues its decline.
– This area (4530 – 4535) is now a key support level as it is in line with the rising trend line and the old resistance level (453x) that buyers are defending.
=> This area will determine whether the downtrend will extend into deeper support.
✅ Discount:
1. Purchase scenario:
– If the price stabilizes and the candle closes above the support area (4530 – 4535), it is recommended to focus on looking for short-term buying opportunities near the price consolidation boundaries (456x – 458x).
=> This area (4530 – 4535) is currently the intersection of the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the uptrend line, so the likelihood of a buy reaction remains relatively high.
– If the price breaks out of the resistance area (4584 – 4588) and closes above it, along with the breakout of the descending trend line and the second hour candle closes above the 34-hour EMA, it will indicate the beginning of a bullish recovery pattern and the continuation of the upward momentum towards the resistance area (462 and 464).
2. Sales scenario:
If the price fails to break above the resistance area (4584 – 4588) and continues to bounce around the resistance line and the descending trend line, selling pressure may retest the important resistance areas (454 and 453) within the price pressure range.
If the price tests the support area (4530 – 4535) and completely breaks it, while breaking above the uptrend line, this signals the beginning of a bearish pattern and will head towards deeper support.
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