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. Classic analysis
General trend: After a strong upward wave starting from the 16.00 riyal level, the price is on an upward horizontal path (ascending channel) in the short term.
Support and resistance levels:
Main resistance levels: 19.30 – 19.50 riyals (upper limit of the ascending channel).
Main support: SAR 18.00 level (rising trendline below).
Price Pattern: A symmetrical triangle or “pennant” pattern is currently forming at the top of the last upswing, which is a continuation of the breakout of the cross resistance at 19.00 riyals.
2. Smart Currency Concept (SMC) Analysis
Liquidity: There is uncapped buyer liquidity above the 19.30 QR peak and sell liquidity below the 18.00 QR level.
Price Gap (FVG): The chart shows a clear gap area between the 17.00 – 17.50 riyal levels defined by the dotted box (VG-H); this area will act as a price magnet if the uptrend is broken.
Character Change (CHoCH): The ascension structure has not been broken yet; prices remain low and rising.
3. Wyckoff analysis
Current Phase: We are in a re-accumulation or markup phase pause.
Volume: We have noticed a decline in volume during the recent consolidation, indicating weaker selling pressure awaiting breakout catalysts.
4. Technical indicators
RSI: Moving at the 43 level, it is in the neutral zone, slightly negative, with room to rise before reaching saturation.
Volume Overview: A high concentration of liquidity (POC) occurs in the SAR 18.80 area (blue on the chart), making it the current pivot point.
5. Transaction management (suggested scenario)
Base case (bullish):
Entry point: After breaking the 19.05 riyal level and closing with a strong hourly candle.
First goal (TP1): 19.60 riyals.
Second goal (TP2): 20.20 riyals.
Stop Loss (SL): Breakthrough of 18.30 riyal level.
Alternative scenario (bearish):
If the rising trend line at 18.35 riyals (Trend-H) is breached, a visit to the spread area at 17.30 riyals (VG-H) is expected to be retested before a new increase occurs.
8. Final evaluation
Expected success rate: 65% (pending hacker confirmation).
Trade type: Scalping trade suitable as short-term swing trading (a few days) or trading within the triangle range.
Warning: Technical analysis is a probabilistic tool. Please strictly adhere to the above stop losses to protect your funds.