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In my previous analysis on TradingView, I explained that sustaining a long-term uptrend depends on the following factors:
• 12-month earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies are very high
• These expectations focus on technology areas supported by the AI ​​revolution
• Within the technology sector, the semiconductor sector continues to perform upward
• Finally, while AI stocks hit new highs, market valuations are still considered relatively low
The combination of these factors represents a major source of stock market resilience in the face of current geopolitical shocks.
Today, I’d like to highlight another factor supporting the long-term uptrend: the number of stock buybacks approved by S&P 500 companies.
It’s important to remember that stock buybacks are approved by a company’s board of directors and can provide insight into the potential number of shares that will be repurchased in the coming months.
The latest data shows that these approvals are accelerating, with the annual cumulative number hitting a new high. The signal is unusual, but instead reflects the company’s management’s strong confidence in its ability to generate future cash flow and its stock’s current valuation, which is still considered attractive.
The table below shows the repurchase data.
Mechanistically, share buybacks directly support the market. By reducing the number of shares outstanding, earnings per share (EPS) rise, supporting a higher price. As such, it represents a powerful self-reinforcing mechanism, especially in an environment of strong earnings growth.
Furthermore, this factor acts as an implicit safety net for the market. During a correction, previously approved buyback programs can be activated more intensively, providing structural demand for the stock.
Finally, the current record levels demonstrate that companies have strong balance sheets and ample liquidity despite the relatively high interest rate environment. This reinforces the view that regardless of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, the long-term upward trend remains entrenched on the back of strong internal catalysts.
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