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Good morning, guys. Let’s do a quick recap of what happened yesterday – since there’s a lot of news and it’s been another busy day today, let’s take it one step at a time and get the full picture.
The first thing that caught people’s attention was the strong rise in oil prices, about 7%. Whether it is Brent crude oil or WTI, the trend is very strong.
But it’s important to understand: What’s the real reason?
The first is U.S. oil inventory data. Usually this is normal data and can significantly impact the market.
The numbers are as follows:
— Crude oil fell about 6.5 million barrels
– About 6 million less gasoline
— Derivatives (diesel) about 4.5 million
Clearly, inventories are falling and the U.S. is using its reserves to ease price pressures – which makes sense. But this rise in strength can only be explained by data.
I was tracking the market – we saw +2%, then +3%, then +4%…it was clear there were other factors behind this move.
We have seen this scenario before: the market moves first, and then the news comes out. I mean, some people have this information before others.
This is what actually happened.
According to leaked information, the campaign began around the evening, and about two hours later, news broke that the United States was preparing for new strikes against Iran, with actions being swift and intensive.
But we have to be careful here.
The news comes from Axios, a reliable source, but when they say “sources,” they usually mean the negotiating team associated with Trump — people like Witkoff and Kushner. These people’s job is negotiation, not military decision-making.
This is likely just a pressure card on Iran rather than an actual implementation plan.
However, the market saw this news as a real upgrade – which is why we saw a strong rise in oil prices. At present, the situation of falling prices is a return to escalation, but I personally think we have to wait and see.
Let’s look at another important news.
Since courts have ruled the tariffs illegal, the U.S. government has begun returning money to businesses. There is a sensitive point here:
– When tariffs cause prices to rise, consumers pay for the first time
– The state now pays compensation to companies from the budget
This means citizens pay twice. This adds pressure on a budget that is already running a deficit.
This could put pressure on the dollar, but the picture is mixed:
– High oil prices support dollar
– Disability diminishes his strength
More likely, what we are seeing at the moment is volatility with no clear direction.
For the Federalists:
Powell confirmed that he has no plans to resign and will likely remain in office until the end of his term. Trump’s pressure has so far not yielded results.
Trump responded on his own platform, saying he would not leave the position because he had no chance of a second job — meaning the dispute continues.
But in reality, Powell is currently doing better than:
– He remains in office
– Interests have not changed
By the way, the United States and Canada showed the expected interest, without any surprises. The tone was dovish and there was no clear signal on the next move – everything will depend on the inflation data.
We are here today.
There’s a lot of data today and a lot to follow.
The most important of them are:
— European inflation data
— ECB interest rate decision (mostly unchanged, but important statement)
– Decision of the Bank of England
— GDP data for the United States and Canada
— U.S. Producer Price Index
Importantly, almost all of this data occurred within a short period of time, just before our second meeting.
We may see wild swings during this period, but by the time trading begins, the market has usually absorbed the news and established a trend.
Overall, I expect today to be a normal day with no strenuous activity – unless there is some surprising news.
We work as usual. Hi everyone, I’ll see you on the course 👍