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This chart reflects three important technical signals:
1) Falling resistance line
All peaks recorded since 2024 have been lower than previous peaks, indicating that markets are gradually pricing in the possibility of lower inflation and easier monetary policy.
2) Rising support line
On the other hand, record lows are gradually rising, suggesting that markets are still not fully convinced that inflationary pressures are over.
3) Technical achievements
Returns are moving within a broad triangle pattern that combines downward pressure above with upward support below, a pattern that reflects a key stage in market behavior.
Second: The most important decision-making area at the moment
The most sensitive areas on the chart are:
5.30 – 4.85
This area represents not just artistic resistance, but also:
High Returns Clear Market Rejection Point
Therefore, we are not faced with the normal technical aspects, but rather an area of potential changes in overall market sentiment.
Third: Expected Scenarios
Scenario 1: The weekly closing price clearly breaks through
If yields manage to break above the 4.85 level and clear the weekly close, the market will interpret this as:
Rate cut may be delayed
persistent inflationary pressures
Pressure is back on tech and growth stocks
Here, the psychological impact on the market is faster than the technical impact.
The second situation: penetration failure and rebound failure
If the echo fails to penetrate this area, this will strongly indicate:
The market is still betting on loose monetary policy in the coming period.
In this case we expect to see:
Feel good about growth stocks
Market sentiment improves
Liquidity will gradually return to high-risk assets
Fourth: Intelligent reading of the current level
Many traders make the mistake of focusing only on the numbers, when the truth is:
The 4.85 level represents more than just a technical number, but a direct conflict between inflation, monetary policy and market behavior.
in conclusion
The market is not yet moving in a clear direction but is in a decisive decision-making phase.
The levels that may determine the course of Q2 2026 are:
4.85
If it breaks through, market sentiment could change completely.
If the breakout fails, we could see a new phase of the advance based on improving expectations rather than strong economic data.
