Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Hi everyone, this is my opinion on the current XAUUSD setup.
market analysis
Gold trading is in a constructive structure, while overall market uncertainty continues to increase. While April is typically seen as a positive month for stocks, the current backdrop is made more fragile as investors face three main pressures: inflation risks related to higher energy prices, weaker interest rate cut expectations and concerns that corporate earnings may not be enough to fully support risk appetite. At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added an additional layer of instability, which may continue to support demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
Looking at the chart, XAUUSD is still moving within an ascending channel and the most important detail now is that the price continues to react above the ascending trendline support. The recent decline has not hurt the broader structure of the recovery. Instead, it looks more like a correction in an ongoing bullish pattern.
The first major level is the 4681 resistance. This is the breakout point that must be breached to confirm that buyers are regaining momentum. If the price is able to break and hold above this area, the next upside targets would be around 4800 and then 4850, while broader upside targets remain around the 4975 Fibonacci resistance area.
On the other hand, the uptrend line remains the primary technical candidate. As long as price respects this support, the bullish view remains valid. If gold prices fall below the trend line and lose the 4599 area, the market may enter a deeper correction and buying orders will decline.
critical levels of monitoring
Purchase confirmation: 4681 or above
Trend Line Support: Still Holding
Rising failure: below 4599
Rising targets: 4800, 4850
Primary Bullish Target: 4975
My scenarios and strategies
As long as gold remains above the uptrend line, my preferred view remains bullish. The best setup would be a confirmed breakout of 4681, as this would indicate that the correction has stabilized and the market is ready to continue higher.
If buyers maintain control above this level, XAUUSD may extend first to 4800 and then to 4850. If bullish momentum continues to build, a broader path higher could remain open towards the 4975 Fibonacci resistance area.
However, if the price falls below the trend line and misses 4599, buying opportunities will no longer be attractive in the short term and the market may enter a deeper correction before a new recovery basis is formed.
This is the setup I’m monitoring right now. Thank you for reading and always manage your risks carefully.
