XAUUSD – Structure built but assigned by Marcus_SMC OANDA:XAUUSD — TradingView

XAUUSD – Structure builds, but allocation risk remains

Gold prices currently remain within a bullish structure following the recent recovery, but price action is starting to show early signs of hesitation near resistance levels. The market does not operate cleanly – instead, it forms a more complex structure that can develop into larger patterns.

The growing alignment between technical signals and the broader outlook suggests a head and shoulders pattern may be forming on the longer time frames.

Market background

Recent analysis suggests gold may be entering a transition phase. While long-term fundamentals remain favorable, current price action reflects a more cautious tone.

The market is no longer in an impulsive bullish phase. Instead, it balances recycling and distribution, and volatility remains high.

Technical overview

Judging from the H1 structure, gold prices have constructed a series of higher lows under the support of the rising trend line at recent lows. The current price remains at the 4,600-4,650 level, and demand remains active.

However, the uptrend is under pressure around the 4,700-4,750 level, an area that coincides with the main FVG zone and previous supply zone. Recent rejections in this area suggest sellers are still defending the cap.

The current structure can be interpreted as the developing right shoulder:

The left shoulder and head have developed a wider structure
Current price action may form a right shoulder
The neckline is located near the 4,550-4,600 area

A break below this neckline would confirm a deeper downward rotation.

critical level
Immediate support/neckline: 4,550 – 4,600
Current price zone: ~4,650
Supply/Resistance: 4,700 – 4,750
Upper resistance (FVG): ~4,800
Deeper Support (Buy Zone): ~4,520
market scene

Scenario 1 – Finish right shoulder, then drop
If the price continues to reject 4,700-4,750 and breaks below 4,550, the head and shoulders structure may be confirmed. This sets the stage for a further move towards 4,520 and below.

Scenario 2 – Pre-decision scope
Price is likely to continue to trade between 4,550-4,750, building liquidity before a breakout. This delays confirmation but does not invalidate the structure.

Scenario 3 – Bullish continuation
If gold prices completely break through 4,750 and remain there, the head and shoulders pattern will weaken and gold prices may rise to 4,800 points or even higher.

Comment

The key factor here is not the pattern itself, but the reaction of the resistance and support zones.

Gold maintains structure but is not expanding significantly. This type of behavior often precedes directional movements, especially when liquidity builds up on both sides.

Currently, gold is at a decision point – either complete the distribution structure or break higher. The next move will determine the mid-term trend.