XAUUSD Restores Structure Before OANDA’s Impressive Data: XAUUSD By: LA_Trader_Fx — TradingView

|Next decision week

Gold is trying to reestablish a bullish structure after forming a Market Structural Shift (MSS) from recent volatility lows. Prices are currently holding steady above the 4,960-4,980 demand zone while gradually moving below multi-layered resistance.

Volatility is likely to increase given U.S. crude oil inventories, President Trump’s speech, core personal consumption expenditures (Y/Y), and Fed member Bostic talking about the economic outlook. This is not a quiet artistic environment.

Technical structure (H2)

After a sharp decline mid-month, the price sucked liquidity from inside sellers and moved higher, forming higher lows above 4,900. The dotted uptrend line shows positive short-term order flow.

Main levels of the chart:

Buy/ask area: 4,960 – 4,980

Strong resistance: 5,080 – 5,100

Fibonacci selling zone: 5,140 – 5,150

Main display/sales area: 5,300 – 5,320

The structure shifts from a recovery correction to a potential continuation – but only if prices can clearly break above 5,080.

overall background

Core PCE remains the most important inflation measure guiding Fed policy.

Any hawkish tone from the Fed spokesperson could put pressure on gold in the near term.

Weak inflation data or dovish comments could trigger a breakout.

Trump’s speech increased the risk of headlines and potential volatility in the dollar.

Technically, gold prices are trading directly below resistance ahead of major data releases – a classic expansion setup.

Application scenarios
Scenario A – Bullish continuation (above 5,080)

If price has momentum to accept above 5,080, liquidity above will be towards:

5,150 (Fibonacci resistance level)

5,300+ (view longer timeframe)

This would confirm that the recent pullback was a consolidation.

Scenario B – Deny and rotate

A failure to break 5,080 would trigger a bearish reaction, taking the price back to:

Demand 4,980

Possible withdrawal of working capital 4,900

A loss of 4,960 points returns short-term control to the seller.

structural bias

As long as the price is above 4,960, the structure is conducive to continuing to try.
Below 4,960, assumptions of a corrective recovery weaken.

This is a market driven by previous levels of data.
Liquidity may be a target until the trend is confirmed.

Reaction to Transaction.
Let the price break above that level before making a commitment.