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XAUUSD – Stable structure Liquidity remains high ahead of CPI data
Gold prices have stabilized after recent losses and prices remain above key intraday fundamentals. The structure is not broken – instead, it is compressing under resistance, which is a sign that the market is preparing for its next move.
Volatility is expected to increase as CPI data approaches and inflation concerns intensify due to rising oil prices. This creates a clear environment where liquidity becomes the main driver.
Market background
Rising oil prices linked to tensions with Iran are pushing up inflation expectations, with the consumer price index expected to post its strongest rise in years.
The path of interest rate cuts currently priced in by the market will be slower, which would normally put pressure on gold prices. But at the same time, inflation risks and uncertainty support safe-haven demand.
This complex backdrop explains why gold prices have not moved significantly but are still maintaining structure rather than collapsing.
artistic appearance
Looking at the 1-hour structure, gold prices are holding higher lows and holding above the 4,730-4,740 buy zone, which serves as a short-term bottom.
Prices are currently consolidating around 4,750 points, below the minor resistance area near 4,780-4,800 points. This compression suggests liquidity is building on both sides.
Above, the main graphics are still clear:
👉 Buyer liquidity is around 4,840–4,850
The current structure shows:
Support remains unchanged
No obvious downward collapse
The market will expand rather than continue to fall
critical level
Support (FVG): 4,730 – 4,740
Current Price: ~4,750
Resistance (near term): 4,780 – 4,800
Liquidity target: 4,840 – 4,850
market scene
Base case – continued rise (preferred)
As long as the price remains above 4730, the structure remains bullish. A break above 4,800 would open the way for liquidity to reach 4,840-4,850.
Secondary scenarios – decline and continuation
Price may retest the 4,730 area before moving higher. This strengthens the foundation.
Failure-crash scenario
A break below 4,730 would change momentum and open downside to less liquid areas.
Comment
The key here isn’t trend yet – it’s positioning.
Gold is squeezing below resistance while holding support, which typically results in a liquidity-driven move once it takes a side.
As CPI data approaches, the market may build liquidity ahead of expansion.
As long as support remains, gold is still expected to rebound above liquidity.
