XAUUSD – Lana favors selling based on Elliott wave early next week

fundamental analysis
During quantitative easing (QE), the Fed injects money into the financial system through bond purchases, filling liquidity “reservoirs” and generally supporting asset prices, including gold.

In contrast, through quantitative tightening (QT), the Fed allows the balance sheet to gradually shrink, withdrawing cash from the market and thus making financial conditions tighter.

Currently, when QT ends, the Fed sends a basic signal:
This is the “minimum” level of liquidity they consider safe;

Reduce the risk of a repeat of liquidity shocks like 2019.

This should help reduce pressure on gold in the medium term, but in the short term prices are still in a technical correction, so Lana prefers to trade based on Elliott Waves rather than following the news.

Technical Analysis – Elliott Wave on M30
On the M30 time frame, gold is in a correction wave C structure, which may be the final trend of the current pattern.

The first five waves showed signs of truncation and were unable to reach new sustained highs, indicating weak purchasing power.

Prices continued to clear buying liquidity at the beginning of the week but did not maintain an upward momentum, reflecting the current weak buying psychology.

Below, the 4128-4135 area is an important area – it is a support area and is where Lana hopes wave C will complete if the downtrend continues.

With this structure in place, Lana’s plan this week is to go short and hold on to the C wave move rather than trying to bottom out early.

Price areas to watch
Sales control area:
4215 – 4218 (main entry)

The targets and liquidity areas are as follows: 4192 – 4175 – 4164: Intermediate liquidity levels are about to be reached.
4135 – 4130: The expected price area for completion of wave C (corresponding to the 4128 – 4135 area on the chart).

Trading scenario

⭐️ Main Scenario – Selling based on Elliott Wave C
Selling entry points: 4215 – 4218
Maximum stop loss: 4220
TP: Minimum: +20 points from entry point

According to the wave expansion: 4135 – 4130 area if the market completely completes the corrective movement

This week Lana will not choose to buy the bottom early, but will wait until the price approaches the 4128-4135 area and reconsider after a clearer signal appears.

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