XAUUSD (H1) Weekly Outlook

XAUUSD (H1) – Weekly Forecast | Geopolitics is back in focus

Gold opened the week holding on to short-term support following last week’s sharp decline and rebound. Prices are currently trading below the 5,100 supply area as geopolitical risks return.

Netanyahu’s tough stance on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and tensions ahead of U.S.-Iran talks have added to uncertainty. Historically, gold has attracted defensive flows when geopolitical risk premiums rise – especially when prices are technically near liquidity zones.

Structures and macros are now aligned at a decision point.

Technical structure (H1)

Main quotes: 5,080 – 5,105

Current price is approximately: 4,980 – 5,000

Intraday support: 4,930 – 4,950

Higher range requirements: 4,658 – 4,685

After reversing near 4,900, the price recovered to 5,000 but failed to break above 5,100. This suggests there is unfinished business on both sides of the liquidity.

The market is in a state of compression—compression leads to expansion.

Scenario of the week
Scenario A – Liquidity breaks above 5,100 (bullish expansion)

If price moves above 5,105, stops above the top of the range will act as fuel.
The uptrend may continue to 5,150+.

Geopolitical headlines may accelerate this movement.

Scenario B – Rejection of offer (downward revised rotation)

It failed to regain 5,100 points and then fell below 4,980 points, opening the way for a rebound:

4,930 Liquidity

4,850 intermediate support level

4,680 orders at cap

This would be a technical adjustment and not necessarily macroeconomically negative.

traffic view

Seller liquidity was removed last week.
Buyer liquidity now remains unaffected above 5,100 points.

Even for tops, markets rarely remain untested for long.

Next week may be a liquidity week rather than a sideways week.

execution thinking

Observe the response of 5.080–5.105.
Above → Expand.
Reject → close the deal first and then re-evaluate.

Horizontal trading.
Let the structure confirm.