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momentum
D1
Daily momentum remains bearish. As the current selling pressure continues, we expect that wave B has been completed and the market has begun to enter wave C.
H4
Momentum in the 4-hour window is also lower. Therefore, prices may continue to fall or trade within a narrow range today, and selling pressure remains.
H1
The 1 hour momentum is expected to reverse higher, suggesting a short-term corrective bounce is likely in the coming hours before the main bearish trend resumes.
wave structure
D1
On the daily frame, the ABC correction structure appears clearer. As long as the momentum of D1 continues to decline, I expect a strong decline in the next 1-2 days to confirm the completion of wave B and the beginning of wave C.
H4
H4 momentum remains bearish, which reinforces the scenario of wave B completion.
Further confirmation of the black B wave formation is the breakthrough of the red B wave bottom of 4778 points.
H1
As we mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the rally towards 5062 eliminates the possibility of forming a bullish structure consisting of 5 complete waves.
So the current trend may be:
– ABC correction structure
– or 1-2 structure within a black C wave downtrend
possible situations
The first case: ABCDE triangle of black wave B
If wave B is in the shape of a triangle, the price may rebound toward the upper boundary of the triangle.
in this case:
– H4 decline won’t be that dramatic
– Prices may move sideways
– 4955 area will be a strong support
The second situation: ABC is in the complex correction of black wave C
In this case, prices may continue to fall:
– 4827
– 4658
– Maybe deeper, towards 4406
Scene 3: 1-2 structure of black C wave
If the pattern is 1-2, we may see a strong and deep breakdown below the 4406 level to complete Wave C.
main observation point
The focus is on H4 power:
– If H4 enters oversold territory without price falling sharply or moving sideways → the first or second scenario may occur
– If the price breaks the support level strongly → a third scenario may occur
trading plan
Price closed below the 5007 liquidity area. I expect this area to turn into strong resistance.
When we retest this area, we will be looking for selling opportunities consistent with H4’s bearish momentum.
– Sales area: 5006 – 5008
– Stop loss: 5036
– First target: 4955
– Second goal: 4927
– Third goal: 4778
The first priority is to trade with the H4 trend while implementing strict risk management and monitoring price reaction at the target level.
