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momentum
D1 (daily) time frame
Daily momentum has now turned bearish, indicating that corrective wave B may be completed.
If this scenario holds true, price is expected to decline or move sideways for 3 to 5 days until D1 momentum enters oversold territory.
H4 time frame (four hours)
The second half momentum is showing signs of a bullish reversal, but we’ll need a closing candle to confirm.
If the reversal is confirmed, the price may move sideways or rise for 3 to 5 H4 candles before a new reaction occurs.
H1 time range (1 hour)
First half momentum is currently in overbought territory and is poised to reverse lower.
This suggests a possible short-term pullback on an hourly basis.
wave structure
D1 structure
As the momentum of D1 reverses to the downside, the likelihood of completion of wave B increases and the market begins to form wave C.
According to the Elliott Wave Theory, C waves often return to the previous fourth wave area.
The current reference target is 4282.
H4 structure
In the B-wave structure we notice the red ABC pattern.
The daily momentum reverses into a downward trend, supporting the possibility of completion of red wave C.
However, since the price target of wave C has not yet been achieved, the possibility of wave B developing into a more complex structure such as ABCDE (adjustment triangle) cannot be ruled out.
If the H4 momentum reversal to the upside is confirmed, prices may form new highs. So we will continue to monitor but not rush to judgment.
H1 structure
Yesterday’s analysis showed that the momentum of H4 reversed upward without forming a new high. Then after the price breaks down, the current structure often forms a five-wave bearish trend.
The current rebound may be the fourth wave.
In terms of price targets:
– Price is currently moving within a liquidity vacuum area.
– A test of the liquidity upper area 5003 is likely before a reaction occurs.
Furthermore, if the H4 momentum reverses to the upside, the price may rise to retest the green POC area 5062.
important price areas
District 5003
It is a potential target for ending the fourth wave.
Plans are to sell from the area. If that comes true, the decline could be swift and strong.
District 5062
If price reaches this area, the five-wave down structure (12345) will no longer be valid.
The structure may turn into an ABC correction, which means the decline will be slower and the target may be shallower.
trading plan
First sales area: 5001 – 5004
– Stop loss: 5031
– First target: 4955
– Second goal: 4827
– Third target: 4658
Second sales area: 5060 – 5063
– Stop loss: 5090
– First target: 5003
– Second target: 4955
– Third goal: 4873
We continue to await confirmation of momentum in the fourth quarter before market direction becomes clearer.
Discipline, respect for wave structure and prudent risk management are key at this stage.
