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1. Momentum
Daily Frame (D1)
– Momentum on the daily frame has reversed to the downside
Downward pressure is expected to continue over the next few days until D1 momentum reaches oversold territory
– This suggests that mid-term adjustment pressures are still controlling the market
H4 frame
– H4 momentum is preparing to reverse lower
– We need to wait for confirmation of H4 candle close
– After confirmation, at least a few bearish H4 candles are likely to appear
H1 frame
– First half momentum is now in oversold territory
– In the short term, the H1 framework may experience a technical rebound
– This rally is important for identifying potential selling opportunities
2. Elliott wave structure
Wave structure on the daily frame (D1)
– As daily momentum reverses to the downside, we expect price to continue forming a Y wave (purple)
– Based on last week’s analysis (and will be updated this week), the momentum in the weekly frame still needs about two weekly candles to reach oversold territory.
– This indicates that the Y wave may develop into a correction structure that takes longer, such as:
– Structure made of 5 waves
– Zigzag model
– or triangle model
– These scenarios are consistent with the principle of alternation, as corrective structures tend to become more complex over time
– So we continue to rely on the mutual confirmation between momentum and wave structure
(Here are the key differences in my approach to Elliott Wave analysis:
I don’t just rely on waveforms, I always incorporate momentum analysis,
This is a technique I learned from Robert C. Minor. )
Wave structure on H4 frame
– H4 momentum is now reversing in the downward direction mentioned in the previous plan
– H4’s previous surge in momentum failed to break through the 4500 mark
– This supports the hypothesis that Wave 2 or B has been completed
– As H4 momentum moves towards oversold territory:
– Price needs to fall below the 4402 level to confirm the downtrend
Wave structure on H1 frame
– On H1 frame, initial setup 1-2-3-4-5 structure (blue)
– Price is currently in wave 2 (blue)
Invalid condition
– If the price reaches the 4500 level:
– H1’s current wave number will be canceled
– In this case, wave C (red) may continue up to 4521
– If the price reaches the 4550 level:
– The entire ABC structure will be canceled (red)
– A complete recount of the waves is required
3. Overview and Trading Preferences
– Taking into account:
– Daily frame momentum reverses to the downside
– H4 momentum reverses to the downside
→ I still favor the bearish scenario during Y wave formation
– Therefore, the current bounce on the H1 frame is extremely important
– Ideal scenario:
– Price rebounded below 4500 points
– H1 momentum moves into overbought territory and reverses downward from there
→ When this is achieved, this will be a high probability sales opportunity
4. Trading plan (unchanged)
– Sales area: 4481 – 4484
– Stop loss: 4502
– First target (TP1): 4440
– Second target (TP2): 4376
– Third target (TP3): 4348
