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momentum
Momentum on the daily frame (D1) is currently trending upward, indicating that the uptrend is likely to continue over the next one to two days until momentum on D1 reaches overbought territory.
– The momentum in the H4 frame is starting to reverse upwards, so we expect a bullish move in the next few H4 candles.
The momentum of the H1 frame is currently in the overbought zone, with initial signs of reversal. It is expected that the H1 frame will see a correction or short-term reversal in the next few hours.
wave structure
Wave structure on the daily frame (D1)
Looking at the daily chart, momentum continues to rise while price has yet to move strongly, which supports the view that correction wave B is still ongoing.
We expect that wave B will be completed when D1 momentum enters overbought territory, paving the way for the next phase of market movement.
Wave structure on H4 frame
On the H4 chart, bullish momentum is emerging, supporting a short-term uptrend that lasts approximately 4 to 5 H4 candles.
This uptrend is still part of Wave B, and upon completion, price is expected to move to Wave C (black).
Wave structure on H1 frame
Within the black B wave, we observe a red corrective ABC structure as the price is currently moving within the red B wave.
Unfortunately, the price did not reach the entry levels we were waiting for in yesterday’s analysis.
Currently, we are waiting for the first half momentum to reverse lower and move into oversold territory. Well, if the momentum reversal between H4 and H1 happens to be an uptrend, this would constitute a strong consensus that can be relied upon to enter a trade.
– If the price does not break above the 4658 level:
This would confirm that the H4 bottom has been formed at 4658 and the price is likely to continue rising in the direction of the H4 momentum.
– If the price breaks below the 4658 level:
This indicates that the B wave may not be complete yet. Next we will focus on the 4597-4640 area, which is a highly liquid area and is compatible with the Fibonacci area analyzed previously, so it is a suitable area to find buying opportunities.
Risk Management Notes
At this stage, the price fluctuation range is very large, exceeding 500 points, which makes it difficult to use limit orders.
Therefore, it is better to rely on direct entry (market execution) based on:
– Momentum behavior
– Price target area
– Obvious reversal candlestick pattern
In current market conditions, rigorous risk management is absolutely necessary:
– Small account: the risk per transaction does not exceed 5%
– Large accounts: risk no more than 3% per trade
Controlling position size during such high volatility is key to protecting capital.
