Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
momentum
– Momentum on the daily frame (D1) is starting to slow down and showing signs of a bearish reversal. If today’s candle close confirms this weakness, we could see a few days of losses.
– Second half momentum is currently declining. In the short term, the downtrend may continue, or prices may trade sideways until momentum reaches oversold territory and a bullish reversal occurs.
– Momentum in the first half is in oversold territory and is poised to reverse upward. In the coming hours, if the first half reversal is confirmed, we may see a short-term rebound or sideways movement.
wave structure
Daily frame D1
– The daily momentum has turned bearish with the current candle being negative.
– If today’s candle close maintains selling pressure, the top of wave B will most likely be confirmed.
Thereafter, price may enter a downward wave or sideways movement to complete Wave C within the ABC correction pattern.
Frame H4
– The corrective triangle pattern on H4 is almost complete.
A breakout of the upper boundary followed by a return test is an important technical signal.
– As H4 momentum decreases, the probability of continuing the decline increases, which enhances the completion of the e-wave (i.e. the B-wave within the larger structure) and the continuation of the decline.
Frame H1
The recent sharp decline may represent an initial 5-wave structure, perhaps the beginning of a longer-term downward trend.
– Confirmation condition: If first half momentum rises into overbought territory and then reverses downwards, and the price fails to break out of the previous high, it will strengthen the long-term downtrend scenario.
Furthermore, as analyzed yesterday, the RSI is showing a bearish divergence; the price is forming higher highs while the RSI is forming lower highs, indicating weaker upward momentum and supporting the possibility of a reversal.
Important price areas (needs to be combined with momentum)
There are two main areas to monitor and correlate with momentum signals:
1. District 5125
– If the current decline is a 5-wave structure and the price is currently in wave 4, it is considered a potential area for the end of wave 5.
– If the price reaches this area while the first half momentum remains oversold, you can look for buying opportunities.
2. District 5211
The Fibonacci level represents 0.618, assuming the decline is complete and an upward correction begins to build momentum in the first half.
– If H4 momentum does not enter oversold territory, and H1 momentum reaches overbought and then reverses downward, this area will be a potential selling opportunity.
current outlook
– Currently, short trades are still preferable based on the overall structure and momentum.
trading plan
Buying area: 5126 – 5124
Stop loss: 5106
First target: 5178
Second target: 5210
Sales area: 5211 – 5213
Stop loss: 5231
First target: 5125
Second target: 5102
– Note: If the sell trade is activated first, the remaining buy orders will be cancelled.
